10 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia
Referee: Piskov·Gero
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Lokomotiv Sofia, 29% draw, 28% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv Sofia at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Sofia4%Draw93%Lokomotiv Plovdiv3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Ryan Leijtenassist: Christ Longville
Angel Lyaskov
27'
⚽Mohamed Medfaiassist: Spas Delev
33'
45+5'
🔁Efe Aliout: Parvizdzhon Umarbaev
53'
Christ Longville
58'
🔁Christ Longvilleout: ali dalil
59'
🔁Ryan Leijtenout: Julien Lamy
🔁Ante Aralicaout: Joyce Kati Katulondi
59'
🔁Mohamed Medfaiout: Ivan Yordanov
59'
Ivan Yordanov
63'
64'
Todor Pavlov
Kaloyan Kostov
72'
74'
🔁Todor Pavlovout: Anton Fase
74'
🔁Julian Ilievout: Miha·Trdan
Adil Taoui
79'
🔁Krasimir Stanoevout: Erol Dost
81'
🔁Kaloyan Kostovout: Reyan Daskalov
81'
Reyan Daskalov
85'
🔁Adil Taouiout: Georgi Minchev
85'

Match stats — Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

64%Possession36%
11Shots8
4On target3
10Corners2

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. VelichkovG
  • 14A. LyaskovD
  • 3K. KostovD
  • 91R. BidoungaD
  • 6EirôD
  • 31K. StanoevM
  • 20D. KostadinovM
  • 7S. DelevF
  • 11A. TaouiF
  • 16M. MedfaiM
  • 29A. AralicaF
Substitutes
  • 22R. DaskalovD
  • 5E. DostM
  • 44B. KatsarovM
  • 24A. LyubenovG
  • 26K. MiloshevM
  • 9G. MinchevF
  • 23O. OdukoD
  • 17M. PapazovF
  • 71N. PenevF
Coach: L. Penev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 4A. ChindrişD
  • 94brito matheusD
  • 5T. PavlovM
  • 22I. IvanovD
  • 12E. AliD
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
  • 10J. IlievM
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 19junior burbanF
Substitutes
  • 33Yoan Dzhelepov
  • 17A. FaseF
  • 26D. Kirashki
  • 99J. LamyF
  • 31D. MrankovF
  • 44M. PetrovićD
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 39P. UmarbayevM
  • 9A. VelevF
Coach: D. Kosič

Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Sofia

First League

  • W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

First League

  • D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Lokomotiv Sofia141671526-119
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338818-1012

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • 3 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 24 October 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 9 July 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 23 February 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • S. Delev11
  • D. Kostadinov10

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lokomotiv Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv Sofia at 43% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ryan Leijten 7' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Mohamed Medfai 33' for Lokomotiv Sofia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv Sofia a 25.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.1% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 34.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 28.0%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

For Lokomotiv Plovdiv the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 43.9% going in: 31.0% after a win, 43.4% after a draw, 51.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 43.4%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lokomotiv Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv Sofia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lokomotiv Sofia win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Lokomotiv Plovdiv win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.