Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
The model makes it 40% Lokomotiv Sofia, 31% draw, 29% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.37, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.00.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
- L0-2CSKA Sofia16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
- L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
- L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 3 April 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 24 October 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 9 July 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 2 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 23 February 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 1 September 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.17 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.00 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.62 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.39 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.62/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.61 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.