11 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia First League prediction & result

Ticha, Varna
Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Cherno More Varna 0-2 Levski Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 14% Cherno More Varna, 22% draw, 64% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 7.14, 4.55 and 1.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Levski Sofia at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cherno More Varna0%Draw1%Levski Sofia99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
Gasper Trdin
27'
⚽Mehdi Moubarik
38'
🔁Mustapha Sangaréout: Álex Centelles
🔁Mohamed Achi Bouaklineout: Ivan·Tasev
57'
L. Squadrone
60'
60'
🔁Wabo Oliver Kamdemout: Aldair
60'
🔁Gasper Trdinout: Kristian Dimitrov
63'
⚽Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
🔁Idris·Bounaasout: Berk Beyhan
71'
🔁Vasil Panayotovout: Padilla Jorge
71'
🔁celso sidneyout: Miguel barandas
78'
🔁Georgi ventsislavovout: Nestorly lumbu
78'
Padilla Jorge
81'
Ertan Tombak
84'
87'
🔁Reinaldo Nascimento Satornoout: Juan Perea
87'
🔁bala evertonout: Steven Stoyanchov

Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

34%Possession66%
7Shots12
4On target3
2Corners4

Line-ups

Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 31D. HristovG
  • 37V. KerchevD
  • 93G. VentsislavovD
  • 5L. SquadroneD
  • 50E. TombakD
  • 24David TelesM
  • 99I. BounaasM
  • 11M. AchiM
  • 71V. PanayotovM
  • 8A. DonchevF
  • 10Celso SidneyF
Substitutes
  • 6M. BanevM
  • 7M. BarandasF
  • 29B. BeyhanM
  • 26João BandaróD
  • 22N. KostadinovM
  • 34K. MihaylovM
  • 9J. PadillaF
  • 17I. TasevF
  • 14A. TodorovD
Coach: Ilian Iliev
Levski Sofia 4-3-3
  • 1O. VladimirovG
  • 71O. KamdemD
  • 18G. TrdinM
  • 4C. MakounD
  • 3MaiconF
  • 8M. GrujićM
  • 19E. El MoubarikM
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 7ReinaldoF
  • 12M. SangaréF
  • 17Everton BalaF
Substitutes
  • 92S. VutsovG
  • 28S. StoyanchovF
  • 77A. RaychevF
  • 9J. PereaF
  • 11A. Oko-FlexF
  • 21AldairD
  • 27David KussoF
  • 55P. HristovD
  • 2Hevertton SantosD
Coach: Julio Velázquez

Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

Cherno More Varna

First League

  • D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026

Levski Sofia

First League

  • D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cherno More Varna143471422-813
2Levski Sofia131021258+1732

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia

  • 21 March 2026Levski Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 19 October 2025Cherno More Varna 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
  • 26 May 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
  • 10 May 2025Levski Sofia 2–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
  • 13 April 2025Levski Sofia 1–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League

The result against the call

Levski Sofia won 2–0 at Cherno More Varna. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Levski Sofia at 64%. The goals: Mehdi Moubarik 27' for Levski Sofia, Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno 63' for Levski Sofia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cherno More Varna a 49.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.2% after a win, 46.7% after a draw, 52.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.9%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Levski Sofia the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 73.3% going in: 75.9% after a win, 68.9% after a draw, 63.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.9%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cherno More Varna v Levski Sofia has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 18% / 26% / 56% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 14% / 22% / 64%: the biggest move is Levski Sofia's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Cherno More Varna win14%▼ −4
  2. Draw22%▼ −4
  3. Levski Sofia win64%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.