Cherno More Varna
vs
Levski Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski Sofia
The model makes it 18% Cherno More Varna, 26% draw, 56% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 5.56, 3.85 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (13%).
Expected goals: Cherno More Varna 0.72, Levski Sofia 2.13.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 56% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 682 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
Cherno More Varna
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
Levski Sofia
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
- W6-0Spartak Varna22 August 2026
What these results say
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
- 21 March 2026Levski Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 19 October 2025Cherno More Varna 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 26 May 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 10 May 2025Levski Sofia 2–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 13 April 2025Levski Sofia 1–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 26 February 2025Cherno More Varna 1–0 Levski SofiaCup
A clear gap in the ratings
Cherno More Varna carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.78 for Levski Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.72 goals for Cherno More Varna and 2.13 for Levski Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cherno More Varna rate 0.52 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Levski Sofia rate 0.88 and 1.01.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cherno More Varna a 0% chance of the title and Levski Sofia 66.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Cherno More Varna against 2.13 for Levski Sofia. Cherno More Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.01 for Levski Sofia.