Esbjerg vs Aalborg 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Esbjerg 3-3 Aalborg.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Esbjerg, 27% draw, 31% Aalborg — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esbjerg at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Esbjerg vs Aalborg
Esbjerg
- L0-3away to AB Copenhagen19 September 2026
- D2-2HB Koge12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Fredericia5 September 2026
- L0-2Vendsyssel FF30 August 2026
Aalborg
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hvidovre12 September 2026
- W2-0away to AB Copenhagen5 September 2026
- D0-0HB Koge29 August 2026
What these results say
- Esbjerg did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Esbjerg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Esbjerg failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aalborg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Aalborg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aalborg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Esbjerg | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 6 |
| 4 | Aalborg | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs Aalborg
- 10 October 2026Esbjerg 3–3 Aalborg1. Division
- 21 March 2026Aalborg 1–1 Esbjerg1. Division
- 19 August 2025Esbjerg 1–0 Aalborg1. Division
- 30 October 2024Esbjerg 0–2 AalborgDBU Pokalen
- 30 June 2021Aalborg 0–0 EsbjergFriendlies Clubs
- 19 August 2020Esbjerg 2–1 AalborgFriendlies Clubs
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.