11 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result

Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
Referee: Lyuboslav Lyubomirov
Full time2 – 3

Final score: CSKA 1948 2-3 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% CSKA 1948, 29% draw, 36% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA Sofia at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA 19483%Draw93%CSKA Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Bruno Jordãoassist: Stefano Sensi
Hector Cuellar
28'
28'
⚽Ioannis Pittasassist: Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
34'
•Stefano Sensi
46'
🔁Ángelo Martinoout: Andrey Yordanov
🔁Mamadou Dialloout: Atanas Iliev
46'
Dragan Grivić
48'
⚽Elias Correa Franco
56'
56'
Fedor·Lapoukhov
Elias Correa Franco
63'
⚽Atanas Iliev
68'
70'
Stefano Sensi
70'
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: Cătălin Itu
71'
🔁Joel·Zwartsout: Santiago Godoy
73'
🔁Dragan Grivićout: danilo terasenko
73'
75'
Bruno Jordão
🔁Moataz Zemzemiout: Petar Vitanov
84'
86'
🔁Max Ebongout: James Eto'o
90'
⚽Bruno Jordão
🔁Elias Correa Francoout: Florian Krebs
90+1'
90+2'
🔁Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereiraout: Isaac Solet Bomawoko
90+3'
Stefano Sensi

Match stats — CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

36%Possession64%
11Shots18
8On target7
1Corners2

Line-ups

CSKA 1948 4-2-3-1
  • 31A. BozhevG
  • 6EmersonD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4A. HoffmannD
  • 96D. GrivićD
  • 8M. ZemzemiM
  • 33H. CuellarD
  • 11G. RusevF
  • 30J. MeyerM
  • 77Elias FrancoF
  • 93M. DialloF
Substitutes
  • 7BernaM
  • 9A. IlievF
  • 70K. IlievD
  • 23F. KrebsM
  • 1P. MarinovG
  • 14K. StrinskiM
  • 71danilo terasenkoF
  • 10B. TsonevM
  • 34P. VitanovM
Coach: Ognyan Mladenov
CSKA Sofia 4-4-2
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 2PastorD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
  • 17Á. MartinoD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 38Léo PereiraF
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 11M. BrahimiF
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 37B. CotterD
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 9S. GodoyF
  • 67C. ItuM
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 94I. Solet BomawokoM
Coach: Markus Gisdol

Form going into CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

CSKA 1948

First League

  • W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026

CSKA Sofia

First League

  • D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4CSKA 1948149233316+1729
1CSKA Sofia141040329+2334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia

  • 13 May 2026CSKA Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
  • 8 May 2026CSKA 1948 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 14 February 2026CSKA 1948 0–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 10 February 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 CSKA 1948Cup
  • 24 August 2025CSKA Sofia 0–1 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

  • Frédéric Maciel30
  • Elias Franco20
  • A. Iliev10

CSKA Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • Bruno Jordão20
  • I. Pittas10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CSKA Sofia won 3–2 at CSKA 1948. The model had made a win for CSKA Sofia its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bruno Jordão 19' for CSKA Sofia, Ioannis Pittas 28' for CSKA Sofia, Elias Correa Franco 56' for CSKA 1948, Atanas Iliev 68' for CSKA 1948, Bruno Jordão 90' for CSKA Sofia. Sent off: Stefano Sensi (CSKA Sofia) 90+3'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave CSKA 1948 a 75.3% chance to finish in the top four: 82.5% after a win, 74.9% after a draw, 69.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.1%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

For CSKA Sofia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 93.1% going in: 96.8% after a win, 92.9% after a draw, 90.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.8%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.