CSKA 1948
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: CSKA 1948 1–0 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 35% CSKA 1948, 30% draw, 35% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: CSKA 1948 1.27, CSKA Sofia 1.27.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA 1948 at 35% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Septemvri Sofia23 August 2026
CSKA Sofia
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
- W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
- W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
What these results say
- CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia
- 13 May 2026CSKA Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 8 May 2026CSKA 1948 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 14 February 2026CSKA 1948 0–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 10 February 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 CSKA 1948Cup
- 24 August 2025CSKA Sofia 0–1 CSKA 1948First League
- 7 December 2024CSKA Sofia 2–2 CSKA 1948First League
Leading scorers: CSKA 1948 and CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
- Frédéric Maciel1 goals
CSKA Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CSKA 1948 carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.6 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for CSKA 1948 and 1.27 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CSKA 1948 rate 0.72 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.77 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Sofia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CSKA 1948 a 5.4% chance of the title and CSKA Sofia 17%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for CSKA 1948 against 1.27 for CSKA Sofia. CSKA 1948's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.28 for CSKA Sofia.