GO Ahead Eagles
vs
Willem II
The model makes it 39% GO Ahead Eagles, 23% draw, 38% Willem II — fair odds of 2.56, 4.35 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: GO Ahead Eagles 1.80, Willem II 1.77.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: GO Ahead Eagles vs Willem II
- 16 March 2025GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 18 August 2024Willem II 2–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 8 April 2022GO Ahead Eagles 4–0 Willem IIEredivisie
- 27 November 2021Willem II 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 16 April 2017Willem II 2–0 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GO Ahead Eagles carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.64 for Willem II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.77 for Willem II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.78 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Willem II rate 0.80 and 1.22.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GO Ahead Eagles the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles against 1.77 for Willem II. GO Ahead Eagles's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.22 for Willem II.