Levski Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
The model makes it 85% Levski Sofia, 11% draw, 4% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.18, 9.09 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 2.72, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.43.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Levski Sofia
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse17 July 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 9 March 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 26 September 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 4 December 2024Levski Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 2 August 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 18 May 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 2 December 2023Levski Sofia 3–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
A clear gap in the ratings
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.7 against 5.94 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Levski Sofia W-W-W; Lokomotiv Plovdiv L-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.72 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.43 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.71 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.31 and 2.03.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 33% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (16%), 3-0 (14%), 1-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 85%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.43 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/2.03 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.