NEC Nijmegen
vs
Telstar
The model makes it 58% NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw, 21% Telstar — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.19, Telstar 1.25.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
- 2 May 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 December 2025Telstar 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 5 April 2021NEC Nijmegen 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 3 January 2021Telstar 5–2 NEC NijmegenEerste Divisie
- 7 February 2020Telstar 1–7 NEC NijmegenEerste Divisie
- 30 August 2019NEC Nijmegen 4–2 TelstarEerste Divisie
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.74 for Telstar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): NEC Nijmegen D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.19 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.25 for Telstar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 1.00 in attack and 0.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Telstar rate 0.93 and 1.16.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.25 for Telstar. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 1/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.16 for Telstar.