NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% NEC Nijmegen, 21% draw, 21% Telstar — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
NEC Nijmegen at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gonzalo CrettazG
- 2Brayann PereiraD
- 6Darko NejašmićD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 25Sami OuaissaM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 8Isak Hansen AarøenM
- 99Clement BischoffM
- 9Tjaronn CheryF
- 20Noe LebretonF
- 10Dušan TadićF
- 14Kaj SierhuisF
- 3Philippe SandlerD
- 11Willum Thor WillumssonM
- 30Bryan LinssenF
- 7Emre MorF
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 38Joep GenesteG
- 21Tobias StormD
- 5Thomas OuwejanD
- 1Ronald Koeman JrG
- 3Gerald AldersD
- 4Abdelnour SoualhiaD
- 43Marvin PeersmanD
- 2Jeff HardeveldD
- 17Nils RossenM
- 10Tyrone OwusuM
- 7Rui MendesM
- 27Patrick BrouwerM
- 11Soufiane HetliM
- 9Jelani SeedorfF
- 8Emirhan DemircanF
- 5Prince AningM
- 6Isaiah AhmedM
- 23Noach ShenkmanM
- 18Gabi CaschiliD
- 20Daan ReizigerG
- 13Finn MulderG
- 15Nigel Ogidi NwankwoD
- 28Rojendro OudstenD
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
NEC Nijmegen
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus4 August 2026
Telstar
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar
- 2 May 2026NEC Nijmegen 1–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 13 December 2025Telstar 2–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 5 April 2021NEC Nijmegen 1–1 TelstarEerste Divisie
- 3 January 2021Telstar 5–2 NEC NijmegenEerste Divisie
- 7 February 2020Telstar 1–7 NEC NijmegenEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Telstar
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Telstar
GoalsAssists
- T. Owusu51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Telstar won 2–1 at NEC Nijmegen. The model had leaned towards a win for NEC Nijmegen at 58% and given a win for Telstar 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: P. Brouwer 1' for Telstar, R. Mendes 24' for Telstar, K. Sierhuis 83' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 1.89–1.46.