Dunav Ruse
vs
Arda Kardzhali
The model makes it 30% Dunav Ruse, 20% draw, 50% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 3.33, 5.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Dunav Ruse 1.77, Arda Kardzhali 2.30.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dunav Ruse
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
Arda Kardzhali
- L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
- D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 7 | Arda Kardzhali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali
- 19 November 2022Dunav Ruse 1–2 Arda KardzhaliCup
- 21 June 2020Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 6 June 2020Dunav Ruse 0–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 6 October 2019Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Dunav RuseFirst League
The two sides
Dunav Ruse carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.43 for Arda Kardzhali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dunav Ruse L-L-L; Arda Kardzhali D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Dunav Ruse and 2.30 for Arda Kardzhali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunav Ruse rate 0.62 in attack and 2.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arda Kardzhali rate 0.65 and 1.51.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Dunav Ruse against 2.3 for Arda Kardzhali. Dunav Ruse's attack/defence rating is 0.62/2.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.51 for Arda Kardzhali.