Aalborg
vs
Hobro
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Aalborg 2–1 Hobro
The model makes it 47% Aalborg, 26% draw, 27% Hobro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aalborg 1.76, Hobro 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Aalborg are 4th on 14 points from 10 games; Hobro are 5th on 14 points from 10 games — 1. Division.
- Aalborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 3-3 draw away to Esbjerg.
- Hobro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kolding IF.
- Last 6 meetings: Hobro 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Hobro 2–1 Aalborg.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aalborg vs Hobro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalborg at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aalborg vs Hobro
Aalborg
- D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hvidovre12 September 2026
- W2-0away to AB Copenhagen5 September 2026
- D0-0HB Koge29 August 2026
Hobro
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
- L2-5away to HB Koge21 September 2026
- D0-0Vejle11 September 2026
- L1-3Hvidovre4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Hillerød30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aalborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Aalborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hobro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hobro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hobro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aalborg | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Hobro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalborg vs Hobro
- 21 August 2026Hobro 2–1 Aalborg1. Division
- 1 May 2026Aalborg 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 10 April 2026Hobro 0–1 Aalborg1. Division
- 14 March 2026Hobro 1–0 Aalborg1. Division
- 1 August 2025Aalborg 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 29 June 2024Hobro 1–1 AalborgFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aalborg carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.13 for Hobro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Aalborg and 1.20 for Hobro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aalborg rate 0.53 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hobro rate 0.48 and 2.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aalborg a 0.7% chance of the title and Hobro 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aalborg the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Aalborg against 1.20 for Hobro. Aalborg's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.04 for Hobro.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aalborg at home · Hobro away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Aalborg 10, Hobro 10.
Hobro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Aalborg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Aalborg
- at HB Koge6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- at Kolding IF20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
- vs Esbjerg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 49%
Hobro
- vs Esbjerg7 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 46%
- at Aarhus Fremad20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 23%
- vs FC Fredericia29 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.