Atlas
vs
Atlante FC
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 58% Atlas, 25% draw, 17% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Atlas 1.75, Atlante FC 0.85.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atlas
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Atlante FC
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Atlas
No league goals recorded yet.
Atlante FC
- E. Pizzuto2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.37 for Atlante FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlas W-W-L-W-W; Atlante FC L-D-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Atlas and 0.85 for Atlante FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.64 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlante FC rate 0.55 and 1.45.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Atlas against 0.85 for Atlante FC. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.45 for Atlante FC.