Atlas vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 1-1 Atlante FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atlas, 30% draw, 28% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Atlante FC
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 3J. SanchezD
- 19A. FriasD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 21R. SchlegelD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 58A. GonzalezM
- 26A. RochaM
- 10L. EstevesM
- 9F. MonzonF
- 8R. MmaeeF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 4A. MoraD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 15P. RamirezD
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 203J. MartinF
- 1O. JimenezG
- 29W. PortalesD
- 14C. AlfaroD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirosD
- 27A. EscobarD
- 30Martin SarrafioreM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 7Jhojan JulioF
- 9L. PuenteF
- 33Garcia JordanG
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 32D. O. Bagui TobarD
- 18C. BermudezM
- 37W. ClarD
- 25M. FernandezM
- 15J. CharcopaF
- 20G. AdameM
- 11J. MoxicaF
Form going into Atlas vs Atlante FC
Atlas
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
Atlante FC
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atlante FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 18 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atlas and Atlante FC
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves41
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.