Bologna
vs
Monza
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bologna 2–1 Monza
The model makes it 46% Bologna, 26% draw, 28% Monza — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bologna 1.74, Monza 1.23.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Bologna are 14th on 5 points from 7 games; Monza are 16th on 4 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Bologna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Inter.
- Monza have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Lazio.
- Last 6 meetings: Bologna 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2025, ended Bologna 3–1 Monza.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bologna vs Monza
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bologna at 46% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bologna vs Monza
Bologna
- L1-3Inter17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lecce11 October 2026
- D1-1Torino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Napoli13 September 2026
- D2-2Sassuolo6 September 2026
Monza
- L1-3away to Lazio11 October 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
What these results say
- Bologna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bologna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bologna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Monza
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Monza
Bologna and Monza have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bologna has won 3 of them to Monza's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Bologna won the last one 3–1 on 18 Jan 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| Monza | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 18 Jan 2025
Serie ABologna 3–1 Monza - 3 Dec 2024
Coppa ItaliaBologna 4–0 Monza - 22 Sep 2024
Serie AMonza 1–2 Bologna - 13 Apr 2024
Serie ABologna 0–0 Monza - 28 Sep 2023
Serie AMonza 0–0 Bologna - 12 Feb 2023
Serie ABologna 0–1 Monza
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Bologna and Monza
Bologna
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bologna carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.72 for Monza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Bologna and 1.23 for Monza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bologna rate 0.90 in attack and 0.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monza rate 1.04 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Bologna against 1.23 for Monza. Bologna's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.39 for Monza.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bologna at home · Monza away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BolognaMonza
Bologna are 14th after 7 Serie A matches (between 13th and 17th so far); Monza are 15th after 6 (between 14th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Bologna 7, Monza 6.
Bologna score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Monza have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bologna
- at Parma7 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Udinese22 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
- at Venezia29 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
Monza
- vs Atalanta8 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Fiorentina23 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.