Cordoba
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Cordoba 2–1 AD Ceuta FC
The model makes it 52% Cordoba, 24% draw, 24% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Cordoba 2.13, AD Ceuta FC 1.29.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cordoba's rating is built from 52 Segunda División matches and AD Ceuta FC's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,047 matches.
Key facts
- Cordoba are 15th on 12 points from 10 games; AD Ceuta FC are 21st on 5 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Cordoba have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Leganes.
- AD Ceuta FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Oviedo.
- Last 6 meetings: Cordoba 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2026, ended AD Ceuta FC 3–2 Cordoba.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cordoba at 52% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
Segunda División
- W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Eldense10 October 2026
- W3-2Tenerife5 October 2026
- L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División
- L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Castellón4 October 2026
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
What these results say
- Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
- AD Ceuta FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cordoba | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cordoba vs AD Ceuta FC
- 25 February 2026AD Ceuta FC 3–2 CordobaSegunda División
- 2 November 2025Cordoba 2–0 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 18 February 2024AD Ceuta FC 1–1 CordobaPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 12 November 2023Cordoba 3–3 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 12 March 2023Cordoba 1–1 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 6 November 2022AD Ceuta FC 1–2 CordobaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan31
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.3 for AD Ceuta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Cordoba and 1.29 for AD Ceuta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cordoba rate 0.76 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AD Ceuta FC rate 0.61 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cordoba a 0.1% chance of the title and AD Ceuta FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cordoba the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Cordoba against 1.29 for AD Ceuta FC. Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.82 for AD Ceuta FC.
How the model reaches 52% for Cordoba to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cordoba to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Cordoba's ratings take away 21 points and AD Ceuta FC's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Cordoba's ratings22%−21
- AD Ceuta FC's ratings52%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cordoba at home · AD Ceuta FC away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CordobaAD Ceuta FC
Cordoba are 15th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 8th and 19th so far); AD Ceuta FC are 21st after 10 (between 19th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Cordoba 10, AD Ceuta FC 10.
Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); AD Ceuta FC have let in 1 there.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Cordoba have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cordoba
- at Mallorca14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
- vs Oviedo22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- at Cadiz29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 34%
AD Ceuta FC
- at Tenerife15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- vs Almeria22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
- at Granada CF29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.