Granada CF
vs
Tenerife
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Granada CF 2–1 Tenerife
The model makes it 46% Granada CF, 27% draw, 27% Tenerife — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Granada CF 1.65, Tenerife 1.15.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Granada CF's rating is built from 53 Segunda División matches and Tenerife's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,047 matches.
Key facts
- Granada CF are 4th on 20 points from 11 games; Tenerife are 12th on 13 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Granada CF are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Valladolid.
- Tenerife have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Celta de Vigo II.
- Last 5 meetings: Granada CF 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 December 2025, ended Tenerife 0–1 Granada CF.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Granada CF vs Tenerife
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Granada CF at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Granada CF vs Tenerife
Granada CF
Segunda División
- W2-1Valladolid23 October 2026
- W2-0Cadiz18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Burgos12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
Tenerife
Segunda División
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II19 October 2026
- D1-1Girona12 October 2026
- L2-3away to Cordoba5 October 2026
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
- L0-5away to Castellón19 September 2026
What these results say
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 20 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Granada CF vs Tenerife
- 4 December 2025Tenerife 0–1 Granada CFCopa del Rey
- 28 March 2025Tenerife 2–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 19 October 2024Granada CF 4–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 10 February 2023Granada CF 2–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 16 October 2022Tenerife 2–0 Granada CFSegunda División
Leading scorers: Granada CF and Tenerife
Granada CF
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pascual40
Tenerife
GoalsAssists
- Enric Gallego60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Granada CF carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.46 for Tenerife. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Granada CF and 1.15 for Tenerife. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Granada CF rate 0.75 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tenerife rate 0.66 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Granada CF a 0.8% chance of the title and Tenerife 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Granada CF the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Granada CF against 1.15 for Tenerife. Granada CF's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.43 for Tenerife.
How the model reaches 46% for Granada CF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Granada CF to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Granada CF's ratings take away 17 points and Tenerife's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Granada CF's ratings26%−17
- Tenerife's ratings46%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Granada CF at home · Tenerife away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Granada CFTenerife
Granada CF are 4th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Tenerife are 12th after 10 (between 2nd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Granada CF 11, Tenerife 10.
Granada CF score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Tenerife have let in 3 there.
Tenerife score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Granada CF have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Granada CF
- vs Las Palmas15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Sabadell22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs AD Ceuta FC29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 56%
- at Sporting Gijon6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
Tenerife
- vs AD Ceuta FC15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- vs Mallorca22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- at Albacete29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.