Leeds
vs
Newcastle
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Leeds 4-1 Newcastle.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Leeds, 27% draw, 25% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leeds 1.93, Newcastle 1.09.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Leeds vs Newcastle
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leeds at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leeds vs Newcastle
Line-ups
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 18A. StachM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 19N. OkaforF
- 16M. ZettererG
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 26M. BardD
- 15J. BijolD
- 7D. JamesF
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 10H. WilsonF
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 37A. DedićD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 3L. HallD
- 67L. MileyM
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 9Y. WissaF
- 1N. PopeG
- 2T. LivramentoD
- 5F. SchärD
- 8A. BambaM
- 14Sean SteurM
- 17B. TouréF
- 28J. WillockM
- 41J. RamseyM
- 76M. MileyM
Form going into Leeds vs Newcastle
Leeds
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
Newcastle
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
- D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Leeds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Newcastle
- 7 January 2026Newcastle 4–3 LeedsPremier League
- 30 August 2025Leeds 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 13 May 2023Leeds 2–2 NewcastlePremier League
- 31 December 2022Newcastle 0–0 LeedsPremier League
- 22 January 2022Leeds 0–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 17 September 2021Newcastle 1–1 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Leeds and Newcastle
Leeds
- D. Calvert-Lewin2 goals1 assists
- J. Bogle2 goals
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.93 goals for Leeds and 1.09 for Newcastle; the game produced 4 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lewis Miley 32' (Leeds), Jayden Bogle 34' (Leeds), Dominic Calvert-Lewin 45' (Leeds), Noah Okafor 59' (Leeds), Bazoumana Touré 90' (Newcastle).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leeds the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Leeds against 1.09 for Newcastle. Leeds's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.11 for Newcastle.