Leeds vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Leeds 4-1 Newcastle.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Leeds, 28% draw, 29% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leeds at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leeds vs Newcastle
Line-ups
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 18A. StachM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 19N. OkaforF
- 16M. ZettererG
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 26M. BardD
- 15J. BijolD
- 7D. JamesF
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 10H. WilsonF
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 37A. DedićD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 3L. HallD
- 67L. MileyM
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 9Y. WissaF
- 1N. PopeG
- 2T. LivramentoD
- 5F. SchärD
- 8A. BambaM
- 14Sean SteurM
- 17B. TouréF
- 28J. WillockM
- 41J. RamseyM
- 76M. MileyM
Form going into Leeds vs Newcastle
Leeds
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026
Newcastle
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
- D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Newcastle
- 7 January 2026Newcastle 4–3 LeedsPremier League
- 30 August 2025Leeds 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 13 May 2023Leeds 2–2 NewcastlePremier League
- 31 December 2022Newcastle 0–0 LeedsPremier League
- 22 January 2022Leeds 0–1 NewcastlePremier League
Leading scorers: Leeds and Newcastle
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leeds beat Newcastle 4–1. The model had made a win for Leeds its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Lewis Miley (own goal) 32' for Leeds, Jayden Bogle 34' for Leeds, Dominic Calvert-Lewin 45+1' for Leeds, Noah Okafor 59' for Leeds, Bazoumana Touré 90' for Newcastle.
How the call on Leeds v Newcastle has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Leeds's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Leeds win43%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Newcastle win29%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.