Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 30% draw, 27% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Line-ups
- 1O. MelikaG
- 2J. TavernierD
- 5M. CamaraD
- 13R. ShlomoD
- 22N. Ben HarushD
- 28I. SissokhoM
- 77O. DavidaM
- 42Dor PeretzM
- 16G. KanichowskyM
- 29Hélio VarelaM
- 9E. SoklerF
- 36I. ShaharM
- 60I. Ben SimonF
- 41I. Ben HamoD
- 6T. AsanteD
- 18D. GlazerM
- 33H. LayousF
- 19E. MadmonF
- 90R. MishpatiG
- 30I. NoyM
- 22A. TzurG
- 97M. CocoD
- 5F. MayemboD
- 4ChicoD
- 16D. LeidnerD
- 98FalcãoM
- 6A. KraevM
- 11S. TorialM
- 35D. OwusuM
- 15R. AlkokinM
- 9E. BoatengF
- 7R. KorineF
- 14E. KancepolskyM
- 44D. DappaF
- 27M. BuskilaF
- 23A. LemkinM
- 51O. AltmanF
- 18T. ArchelD
- 1Dor BenyaminiG
- 21S. PivenD
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
- D1-1FC Lugano27 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Lugano20 August 2026
- W3-1away to CSKA Sofia13 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Haifa30 August 2026
- L0-1Atalanta27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atalanta20 August 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 20 |
| 2 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
- 9 May 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–1 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 19 April 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 26 January 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 1–2 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 14 January 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–1 Maccabi Tel AvivState Cup
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz61
- E. Madmon22
- O. Davida21
Hapoel Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- E. Boateng32
- D. Owusu31
- O. Altman30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maccabi Tel Aviv beat Hapoel Tel Aviv 4–1. The model had made a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Dor Peretz 19' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, stav torial 33' for Hapoel Tel Aviv, Osher Davida 36' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Hisham Layous 88' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Elad Madmon 90+5' for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Sent off: stav torial (Hapoel Tel Aviv) 45+6'.
How the call on Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 31% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Hapoel Tel Aviv's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win43%▼ −4
- Draw30%▼ −1
- Hapoel Tel Aviv win27%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.