Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 25% draw, 27% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.31, Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.41.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- W4-1away to Hapoel Beer Sheva7 September 2026
- W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
- W5-2away to Hapoel Jerusalem23 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Haifa30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Dor Peretz3 goals1 assists
- E. Sokler2 goals
- Hélio Varela1 goals1 assists
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- D. Owusu2 goals
- E. Boateng1 goals1 assists
- R. Alkokin1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Maccabi Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.46 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.41 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Maccabi Tel Aviv rate 1.02 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.64 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 1.41 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.39 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.