FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result
Final score: FCSB 2-2 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% FCSB, 28% draw, 34% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FCSB at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Line-ups
- 32Ș. TârnovanuG
- 97R. LabonneD
- 5J. DawaD
- 21D. BatubinsikaD
- 4Ricardo PadurariuD
- 73K. MuharM
- 15O. AradM
- 11D. MiculescuM
- 31J. CisottiM
- 9M. KorenicaM
- 14A. GaritaF
- 2V. CrețuD
- 22M. TomaM
- 34R. UdreaG
- 90A. StoianF
- 28A. BoutoutaouF
- 10D. DrăguşF
- 77L. StancuM
- 8E. GnahoréM
- 18João PauloM
- 38L. ZimaG
- 22M. ȚuțuD
- 24Adam ZaianD
- 71B. MalulaD
- 2A. DumitrescuD
- 8L. VegaM
- 20S. HancaM
- 10A. BranM
- 7Rodrigo MartinsM
- 9D. NlunduluF
- 19Léo TeixeiraF
- 26Liviu ArgeșanuM
- 28M. CostacheM
- 66T. CăpușăD
- 80M. IonițăM
- 99O. DeleM
- 98R. JerdeaF
- 30R. LeescuD
- 29K. LudewigD
- 40R. ManolacheM
Form going into FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
FCSB
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
- L1-3Uta Arad30 August 2026
- L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe10 August 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
- L0-2Rapid21 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Voluntari14 August 2026
- W1-0Oțelul7 August 2026
What these results say
- FCSB failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FCSB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FCSB | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 21 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 24 April 2026FCSB 3–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 22 November 2025FCSB 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 19 July 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 FCSBLiga I
- 6 February 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 FCSBLiga I
- 21 September 2024FCSB 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: FCSB and Petrolul Ploiesti
FCSB
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Petrolul Ploiesti
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Martins42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FCSB and Petrolul Ploiesti drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FCSB at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Dan N'Lundulu 3' for Petrolul Ploiesti, Ofri Arad (penalty) 14' for FCSB, Meriton Korenica 24' for FCSB, Breston Malula 66' for Petrolul Ploiesti.
How the call on FCSB v Petrolul Ploiesti has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is FCSB's chance of winning, down 9 points.
- FCSB win38%▼ −9
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Petrolul Ploiesti win34%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.