FCSB
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I prediction & result
Final score: FCSB 2-2 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% FCSB, 28% draw, 35% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FCSB 1.54, Petrolul Ploiesti 1.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FCSB at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Line-ups
- 32Ș. TârnovanuG
- 97R. LabonneD
- 5J. DawaD
- 21D. BatubinsikaD
- 4Ricardo PadurariuD
- 73K. MuharM
- 15O. AradM
- 11D. MiculescuM
- 31J. CisottiM
- 9M. KorenicaM
- 14A. GaritaF
- 2V. CrețuD
- 22M. TomaM
- 34R. UdreaG
- 90A. StoianF
- 28A. BoutoutaouF
- 10D. DrăguşF
- 77L. StancuM
- 8E. GnahoréM
- 18João PauloM
- 38L. ZimaG
- 22M. ȚuțuD
- 24Adam ZaianD
- 71B. MalulaD
- 2A. DumitrescuD
- 8L. VegaM
- 20S. HancaM
- 10A. BranM
- 7Rodrigo MartinsM
- 9D. NlunduluF
- 19Léo TeixeiraF
- 26Liviu ArgeșanuM
- 28M. CostacheM
- 66T. CăpușăD
- 80M. IonițăM
- 99O. DeleM
- 98R. JerdeaF
- 30R. LeescuD
- 29K. LudewigD
- 40R. ManolacheM
Form going into FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
FCSB
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
- L1-3Uta Arad30 August 2026
- L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
- L0-2Rapid21 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Voluntari14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FCSB | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 14 September 2026FCSB 2–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 24 April 2026FCSB 3–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 22 November 2025FCSB 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 19 July 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 FCSBLiga I
- 6 February 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–0 FCSBLiga I
- 21 September 2024FCSB 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
Leading scorers: FCSB and Petrolul Ploiesti
FCSB
- D. Bîrligea3 goals
Petrolul Ploiesti
- B. Malula3 goals
- D. Nlundulu3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.54 goals for FCSB and 1.48 for Petrolul Ploiesti; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Dan N'Lundulu 3' (Petrolul Ploiesti), Ofri Arad 14' (FCSB), Meriton Korenica 24' (FCSB), Breston Malula 66' (Petrolul Ploiesti).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FCSB the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FCSB against 1.48 for Petrolul Ploiesti. FCSB's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.41 for Petrolul Ploiesti.