Asyut Petrol
vs
Future FC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Asyut Petrol 1–0 Future FC
The model makes it 36% Asyut Petrol, 31% draw, 33% Future FC — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Asyut Petrol 1.23, Future FC 1.13.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Asyut Petrol vs Future FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Asyut Petrol wins, grey are draws, red are Future FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Asyut Petrol at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Asyut Petrol vs Future FC
Asyut Petrol
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Smouha SC26 August 2026
- D1-1Petrojet22 August 2026
Future FC
- W2-1Wadi Degla9 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra2 September 2026
- W2-0Ghazl El Mehalla27 August 2026
- D1-1away to El Gouna FC23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Asyut Petrol | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 5 | Future FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Asyut Petrol and Future FC
Asyut Petrol
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Future FC
- Mahmoud Mamdouh3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Asyut Petrol carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.38 for Future FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Asyut Petrol and 1.13 for Future FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asyut Petrol rate 0.48 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Future FC rate 0.62 and 1.58.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Future FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Asyut Petrol the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Asyut Petrol against 1.13 for Future FC. Asyut Petrol's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.58 for Future FC.