UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 29 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze
Full time1 1

Final score: Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Gornik Zabrze, 24% draw, 47% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.38, Fenerbahçe 1.80.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

63%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-2 9%2-1 7%

Match stats: Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe

Gornik Zabrze had 48% possession, 15 shots (6 on target), 9 corners; Fenerbahçe had 52% possession, 14 shots (2 on target), 7 corners.

Goals: Talisca (penalty) 12' for Fenerbahçe, M. Sacek 45+10' for Gornik Zabrze.

Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe

  • 29 July 2026Gornik Zabrze 0–0 FenerbahçeUEFA Champions League
  • 21 July 2026Fenerbahçe 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Champions League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 1.8 for Fenerbahçe. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.11/0.87 for Fenerbahçe.