Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe UEFA Champions League prediction & result
Final score: Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Fenerbahçe.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Gornik Zabrze, 25% draw, 45% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 3.33, 4.00 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
Second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Fenerbahçe 1–0 Gornik Zabrze (21 Jul) →
Fenerbahçe went through 2–1 on aggregate.
All Champions League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe
Line-ups
- 1Philipp SchulzeG
- 61Michal SáčekD
- 26Rafał JanickiD
- 20JosemaD
- 64Erik JanžaD
- 66Maximilian DietzM
- 7Yvan Ikia DimiM
- 18Lukáš SadílekM
- 82Kacper UrbańskiM
- 88Taofeek IsmaheelM
- 11Erik PrekopF
- 33Maksym KhlanM
- 23Sondre LisethF
- 19Peter GonzálezM
- 34Bruno DurdovM
- 29Wiktor KaniaG
- 2Patryk WarczakD
- 4Paweł BochniewiczD
- 21Ondřej ZmrzlýD
- 28Bastien DonioM
- 34Mert GünokG
- 27Nélson SemedoD
- 37Milan ŠkriniarD
- 15Nathan AkéD
- 24Jayden OosterwoldeD
- 6Mattéo GuendouziM
- 7FredM
- 17İrfan Can KahveciM
- 10Marco AsensioM
- 9Kerem AktürkoğluM
- 94TaliscaF
- 5İsmail YüksekM
- 11Mason GreenwoodF
- 20Anthony MusabaF
- 70Oğuz AydınF
- 18Mert MüldürD
- 13Tarık ÇetinG
- 31EdersonG
- 3Archie BrownD
- 4Çağlar SöyüncüD
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe
Gornik Zabrze
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
- L0-1away to Fenerbahçe21 July 2026
Fenerbahçe
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Gornik Zabrze21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Gornik Zabrze and Fenerbahçe in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 27 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | UEFA Champions League | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ekstraklasa · UEFA Champions League
Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Fenerbahçe
- 21 July 2026Fenerbahçe 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Fenerbahçe
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
- Peter40
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- Talisca40
- M. Greenwood32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gornik Zabrze and Fenerbahçe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fenerbahçe at 45% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Talisca (penalty) 12' for Fenerbahçe, M. Sacek 45+10' for Gornik Zabrze.