Laval
vs
Boulogne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Laval 1–0 Boulogne
The model makes it 38% Laval, 30% draw, 32% Boulogne — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Laval 1.22, Boulogne 1.07.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Laval are bottom on 5 points from 8 games; Boulogne are 16th on 6 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Laval have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to PAU.
- Boulogne have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sochaux.
- Last 6 meetings: Laval 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Laval 2–1 Boulogne.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Laval vs Boulogne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Laval at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Laval vs Boulogne
Laval
- L2-3away to PAU9 October 2026
- D1-1Sochaux18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Dijon11 September 2026
- L1-2RED Star FC 934 September 2026
- L0-3Grenoble28 August 2026
Boulogne
- D1-1away to Sochaux9 October 2026
- L1-2Nantes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot11 September 2026
- D1-1Dijon4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Montpellier28 August 2026
What these results say
- Laval did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Laval conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Laval scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boulogne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boulogne had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Laval | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 16 | Boulogne | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Laval vs Boulogne
- 9 May 2026Laval 2–1 BoulogneLigue 2
- 12 September 2025Boulogne 1–2 LavalLigue 2
- 25 April 2022Laval 1–0 BoulogneLigue 3
- 3 December 2021Boulogne 1–2 LavalLigue 3
- 20 April 2021Boulogne 1–0 LavalLigue 3
- 20 November 2020Laval 0–0 BoulogneLigue 3
Leading scorers: Laval and Boulogne
Laval
GoalsAssists
- M. Houdayer30
- E. Clavreul24
Boulogne
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Laval carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.33 for Boulogne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Laval and 1.07 for Boulogne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Laval rate 0.59 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boulogne rate 0.47 and 1.40.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Boulogne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Laval the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Laval against 1.07 for Boulogne. Laval's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.4 for Boulogne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Laval at home · Boulogne away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LavalBoulogne
Laval are 18th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 8th and 18th so far); Boulogne are 16th after 8 (between 1st and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Laval 8, Boulogne 8.
Boulogne score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Laval have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Laval
- at Saint Etienne6 Nov · Ligue 2win 17%
- vs Montpellier20 Nov · Ligue 2win 25%
- at Annecy4 Dec · Ligue 2win 20%
Boulogne
- vs Annecy6 Nov · Ligue 2win 29%
- at Metz20 Nov · Ligue 2win 20%
- vs PAU4 Dec · Ligue 2win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.