Rodez
vs
Dunkerque
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Rodez 2–1 Dunkerque
The model makes it 45% Rodez, 25% draw, 30% Dunkerque — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rodez 1.91, Dunkerque 1.48.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Rodez are 15th on 7 points from 8 games; Dunkerque are 12th on 8 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Rodez have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Saint Etienne.
- Dunkerque have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Annecy.
- Last 6 meetings: Rodez 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Dunkerque 1–1 Rodez.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rodez vs Dunkerque
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rodez at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rodez vs Dunkerque
Rodez
- L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026
- L3-4Nancy18 September 2026
- L0-1Grenoble11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Metz5 September 2026
- D2-2PAU28 August 2026
Dunkerque
- L0-1Annecy9 October 2026
- L0-2away to PAU18 September 2026
- W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
What these results say
- Rodez did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodez conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rodez | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Dunkerque | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rodez vs Dunkerque
- 3 April 2026Dunkerque 1–1 RodezLigue 2
- 21 November 2025Rodez 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 10 March 2025Rodez 5–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 30 August 2024Dunkerque 1–0 RodezLigue 2
- 10 February 2024Rodez 0–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 23 September 2023Dunkerque 1–2 RodezLigue 2
Leading scorers: Rodez and Dunkerque
Rodez
GoalsAssists
- I. Baldé50
Dunkerque
GoalsAssists
- E. Prutsev21
- S. Keita21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rodez carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.41 for Dunkerque. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Rodez and 1.48 for Dunkerque. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rodez rate 0.76 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunkerque rate 0.70 and 1.70.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dunkerque, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rodez a 0.7% chance of the title and Dunkerque 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rodez the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Rodez against 1.48 for Dunkerque. Rodez's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.7 for Dunkerque.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rodez at home · Dunkerque away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Rodez 8, Dunkerque 8.
Dunkerque score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Rodez have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Rodez
- at Clermont Foot6 Nov · Ligue 2win 35%
- at Guingamp20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs Reims4 Dec · Ligue 2win 33%
Dunkerque
- vs Guingamp6 Nov · Ligue 2win 46%
- at Sochaux20 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs RED Star FC 934 Dec · Ligue 2win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.