Metz
vs
PAU
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Metz 2–1 PAU
The model makes it 53% Metz, 25% draw, 22% PAU — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Metz 1.96, PAU 1.10.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Metz: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Metz are 10th on 10 points from 8 games; PAU are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Metz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Dijon.
- PAU have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Laval.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2025, ended PAU 2–1 Metz.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Metz vs PAU
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Metz at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Metz vs PAU
Metz
- L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026
- D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
- W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
PAU
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
What these results say
- Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Metz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Metz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | PAU | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Metz vs PAU
- 26 April 2025PAU 2–1 MetzLigue 2
- 4 January 2025Metz 0–0 PAULigue 2
- 8 April 2023PAU 1–1 MetzLigue 2
- 1 October 2022Metz 1–0 PAULigue 2
Leading scorers: Metz and PAU
Metz
GoalsAssists
- P. Fall70
- J. Deminguet23
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Metz carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.37 for PAU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Metz and 1.10 for PAU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Metz rate 0.75 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAU rate 0.67 and 1.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour PAU, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Metz a 6.2% chance of the title and PAU 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Metz against 1.10 for PAU. Metz's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.77 for PAU.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Metz at home · PAU away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MetzPAU
Metz are 10th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); PAU are 7th after 8 (between 7th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Metz 8, PAU 8.
Metz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); PAU have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Metz
- at Montpellier6 Nov · Ligue 2win 29%
- vs Boulogne20 Nov · Ligue 2win 52%
- at Clermont Foot4 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
PAU
- vs Nantes6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- at RED Star FC 9320 Nov · Ligue 2win 25%
- at Boulogne4 Dec · Ligue 2win 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.