Annecy
vs
Nancy
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Annecy 1–0 Nancy
The model makes it 44% Annecy, 28% draw, 28% Nancy — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Annecy 1.69, Nancy 1.09.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Annecy are 7th on 10 points from 7 games; Nancy are 6th on 10 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Annecy have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Dijon.
- Nancy have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 4-3 win away to Rodez.
- Last 4 meetings: Nancy 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 July 2026, ended Nancy 1–1 Annecy.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Annecy vs Nancy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Annecy at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Annecy vs Nancy
Annecy
- L1-2Dijon18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Guingamp12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Grenoble4 September 2026
- D1-1Metz29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Reims24 August 2026
Nancy
- W4-3away to Rodez18 September 2026
- L1-2Reims11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Nantes7 September 2026
- W2-0Dunkerque28 August 2026
- W1-0away to PAU21 August 2026
What these results say
- Annecy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Annecy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Annecy.
- Nancy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Annecy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Nancy | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Annecy vs Nancy
- 28 July 2026Nancy 1–1 AnnecyFriendlies Clubs
- 17 April 2026Nancy 1–5 AnnecyLigue 2
- 23 September 2025Annecy 1–2 NancyLigue 2
- 17 November 2018Annecy 0–1 NancyCoupe de France
Leading scorers: Annecy and Nancy
Annecy
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Nancy
- P. Meïssa Ba2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Annecy carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.38 for Nancy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Annecy and 1.09 for Nancy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Annecy rate 0.72 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nancy rate 0.62 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nancy, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Annecy a 4% chance of the title and Nancy 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Annecy the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Annecy against 1.09 for Nancy. Annecy's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.59 for Nancy.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Annecy at home · Nancy away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Annecy 7, Nancy 7.
Annecy score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Nancy have let in 1 there.
Nancy score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Annecy have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Annecy
- at Sochaux23 Oct · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs Montpellier31 Oct · Ligue 2win 36%
- at Boulogne6 Nov · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Clermont Foot20 Nov · Ligue 2win 42%
Nancy
- vs Laval23 Oct · Ligue 2win 43%
- at RED Star FC 932 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- vs Sochaux6 Nov · Ligue 2win 36%
- vs Dijon20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.