Grenoble
vs
Boulogne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Grenoble 1–0 Boulogne
The model makes it 40% Grenoble, 33% draw, 27% Boulogne — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Grenoble 1.18, Boulogne 0.79.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Grenoble are 13th on 8 points from 7 games; Boulogne are 17th on 5 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Grenoble have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Clermont Foot.
- Boulogne have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Nantes.
- Last 6 meetings: Boulogne 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Grenoble 0–0 Boulogne.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Grenoble vs Boulogne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grenoble at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Grenoble vs Boulogne
Grenoble
- D1-1Clermont Foot18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rodez11 September 2026
- L1-2Annecy4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Laval28 August 2026
- L0-4away to Saint Etienne22 August 2026
Boulogne
- L1-2Nantes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Clermont Foot11 September 2026
- D1-1Dijon4 September 2026
- D0-0away to Montpellier28 August 2026
- D1-1RED Star FC 9321 August 2026
What these results say
- Grenoble scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boulogne did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Boulogne had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grenoble | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Boulogne | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grenoble vs Boulogne
- 27 February 2026Grenoble 0–0 BoulogneLigue 2
- 21 November 2025Boulogne 3–1 GrenobleLigue 2
- 19 January 2018Grenoble 1–2 BoulogneLigue 3
- 18 August 2017Boulogne 0–1 GrenobleLigue 3
- 21 January 2015Boulogne 1–0 GrenobleCoupe de France
- 10 May 2011Grenoble 2–2 BoulogneLigue 2
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Grenoble carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.31 for Boulogne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Grenoble and 0.79 for Boulogne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grenoble rate 0.57 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boulogne rate 0.45 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grenoble a 0.4% chance of the title and Boulogne 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grenoble the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Grenoble against 0.79 for Boulogne. Grenoble's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.4 for Boulogne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Grenoble at home · Boulogne away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Grenoble 7, Boulogne 7.
Boulogne score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Grenoble have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Grenoble
- at PAU23 Oct · Ligue 2win 33%
- vs Dijon30 Oct · Ligue 2win 37%
- vs Reims6 Nov · Ligue 2win 31%
- at Nantes20 Nov · Ligue 2win 24%
Boulogne
- vs Reims26 Oct · Ligue 2win 27%
- at Laval30 Oct · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Annecy6 Nov · Ligue 2win 30%
- at Metz20 Nov · Ligue 2win 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.