Nantes
vs
Clermont Foot
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Nantes 1–0 Clermont Foot
The model makes it 52% Nantes, 28% draw, 20% Clermont Foot — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Nantes 1.60, Clermont Foot 0.78.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Nantes: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Nantes are 13th on 8 points from 8 games; Clermont Foot are 17th on 6 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Nantes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Reims.
- Clermont Foot have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to RED Star FC 93.
- Last 6 meetings: Nantes 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 January 2024, ended Nantes 1–2 Clermont Foot.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nantes vs Clermont Foot
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nantes at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nantes vs Clermont Foot
Nantes
- D0-0Reims10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Boulogne19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux12 September 2026
- W1-0Nancy7 September 2026
- D3-3away to Guingamp29 August 2026
Clermont Foot
- L2-3RED Star FC 9310 October 2026
- D1-1away to Grenoble18 September 2026
- D0-0Boulogne11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dunkerque4 September 2026
- D0-0Sochaux28 August 2026
What these results say
- Clermont Foot did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Clermont Foot had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nantes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nantes vs Clermont Foot
- 14 January 2024Nantes 1–2 Clermont FootLigue 1
- 17 September 2023Clermont Foot 0–1 NantesLigue 1
- 29 January 2023Clermont Foot 0–0 NantesLigue 1
- 30 October 2022Nantes 1–1 Clermont FootLigue 1
- 3 April 2022Clermont Foot 2–3 NantesLigue 1
- 23 October 2021Nantes 2–1 Clermont FootLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nantes and Clermont Foot
Nantes
GoalsAssists
- T. Robinet32
Clermont Foot
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nantes carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.37 for Clermont Foot. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Nantes and 0.78 for Clermont Foot. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nantes rate 0.74 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Clermont Foot rate 0.55 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nantes a 4.9% chance of the title and Clermont Foot 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nantes the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Nantes against 0.78 for Clermont Foot. Nantes's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.46 for Clermont Foot.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nantes at home · Clermont Foot away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NantesClermont Foot
Nantes are 13th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 13th and 18th so far); Clermont Foot are 17th after 8 (between 2nd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Nantes 8, Clermont Foot 8.
Clermont Foot score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Nantes have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Nantes
- at PAU6 Nov · Ligue 2win 45%
- vs Grenoble20 Nov · Ligue 2win 54%
- at Montpellier4 Dec · Ligue 2win 31%
Clermont Foot
- vs Rodez6 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Annecy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 24%
- vs Metz4 Dec · Ligue 2win 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.