Guingamp
vs
PAU
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Guingamp 2–1 PAU
The model makes it 40% Guingamp, 28% draw, 32% PAU — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Guingamp 1.66, PAU 1.33.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Guingamp are 11th on 8 points from 7 games; PAU are 10th on 8 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- Guingamp have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to RED Star FC 93.
- PAU have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Dunkerque.
- Last 6 meetings: Guingamp 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 April 2026, ended PAU 2–1 Guingamp.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Guingamp vs PAU
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guingamp at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Guingamp vs PAU
Guingamp
- L1-3RED Star FC 9319 September 2026
- W2-1Annecy12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Reims5 September 2026
- D3-3Nantes29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sochaux21 August 2026
PAU
- W2-0Dunkerque18 September 2026
- L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
- D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
- L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
What these results say
- Guingamp conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Guingamp scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAU had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Guingamp | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | PAU | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs PAU
- 17 April 2026PAU 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 8 November 2025Guingamp 2–2 PAULigue 2
- 10 May 2025PAU 1–3 GuingampLigue 2
- 18 October 2024Guingamp 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 27 April 2024PAU 1–2 GuingampLigue 2
- 26 August 2023Guingamp 4–0 PAULigue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and PAU
Guingamp
- B. Bokangu4 goals
- D. Gomis2 goals1 assist
PAU
- B. Leye3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Guingamp carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.35 for PAU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Guingamp and 1.33 for PAU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Guingamp rate 0.65 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAU rate 0.63 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour PAU, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Guingamp a 0.3% chance of the title and PAU 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guingamp the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Guingamp against 1.33 for PAU. Guingamp's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.73 for PAU.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Guingamp at home · PAU away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Guingamp 7, PAU 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Guingamp
- at Clermont Foot23 Oct · Ligue 2win 31%
- vs Saint Etienne31 Oct · Ligue 2win 30%
- at Dunkerque6 Nov · Ligue 2win 30%
- vs Rodez20 Nov · Ligue 2win 37%
PAU
- vs Grenoble23 Oct · Ligue 2win 37%
- at Metz30 Oct · Ligue 2win 25%
- vs Nantes6 Nov · Ligue 2win 29%
- at RED Star FC 9320 Nov · Ligue 2win 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.