Grenoble
vs
Dijon
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: Grenoble 1–2 Dijon
The model makes it 33% Grenoble, 27% draw, 40% Dijon — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Grenoble 1.35, Dijon 1.55.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Dijon: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Grenoble are 14th on 8 points from 8 games; Dijon are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — Ligue 2.
- Grenoble have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Montpellier.
- Dijon are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Metz.
- Last 6 meetings: Dijon 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 March 2023, ended Dijon 1–0 Grenoble.
More Ligue 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Grenoble vs Dijon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dijon at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Grenoble vs Dijon
Grenoble
- L0-2away to Montpellier9 October 2026
- D1-1Clermont Foot18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rodez11 September 2026
- L1-2Annecy4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Laval28 August 2026
Dijon
- W4-2Metz12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
- W3-2Laval11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
- L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
What these results say
- Grenoble scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dijon.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Grenoble | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Dijon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grenoble vs Dijon
- 4 March 2023Dijon 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
- 12 November 2022Grenoble 0–0 DijonLigue 2
- 2 April 2022Dijon 1–0 GrenobleLigue 2
- 23 October 2021Grenoble 1–2 DijonLigue 2
- 6 July 2021Dijon 1–1 GrenobleFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2011Dijon 2–1 GrenobleLigue 2
Leading scorers: Grenoble and Dijon
Grenoble
No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares41
- Samy Olivier Chouchane30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Grenoble carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.52 for Dijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Grenoble and 1.55 for Dijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grenoble rate 0.54 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dijon rate 0.85 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grenoble a 0.2% chance of the title and Dijon 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Grenoble against 1.55 for Dijon. Grenoble's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.69 for Dijon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Grenoble at home · Dijon away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GrenobleDijon
Grenoble are 13th after 8 Ligue 2 matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Dijon are 7th after 8 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: Grenoble 8, Dijon 8.
Dijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Grenoble have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Grenoble
- vs Reims6 Nov · Ligue 2win 28%
- at Nantes20 Nov · Ligue 2win 19%
- vs Guingamp4 Dec · Ligue 2win 40%
Dijon
- vs RED Star FC 936 Nov · Ligue 2win 44%
- at Nancy20 Nov · Ligue 2win 38%
- vs Sochaux4 Dec · Ligue 2win 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.