FC Lugano
vs
Grasshoppers
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Lugano 2–0 Grasshoppers
The model makes it 72% FC Lugano, 18% draw, 10% Grasshoppers — fair odds of 1.39, 5.56 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.67, Grasshoppers 0.74.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Lugano are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. FC Lugano's rating is built from 51 Swiss Super League matches and Grasshoppers's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- FC Lugano are top on 34 points from 13 games; Grasshoppers are 10th on 11 points from 13 games — Super League.
- FC Lugano have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to FC St. Gallen.
- Grasshoppers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lausanne.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Lugano 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Grasshoppers 1–4 FC Lugano.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers
Has the model earned this number?
FC Lugano at 72%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers
FC Lugano
Super League
- L0-5away to FC St. Gallen8 November 2026
- W2-1FC Basel 18931 November 2026
- W3-2away to FC Thun25 October 2026
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
Grasshoppers
Super League
- D1-1Lausanne7 November 2026
- D2-2FC Vaduz31 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Basel 189325 October 2026
- L0-2BSC Young Boys11 October 2026
- L1-5away to FC Luzern19 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
- FC Lugano won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grasshoppers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Grasshoppers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Switzerland Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 15 | +21 | 34 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Lugano
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 85% today
Grasshoppers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 84% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs Grasshoppers
- 2 August 2026Grasshoppers 1–4 FC LuganoSuper League
- 1 March 2026Grasshoppers 1–0 FC LuganoSuper League
- 31 January 2026Grasshoppers 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 27 September 2025FC Lugano 2–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 8 February 2025FC Lugano 1–1 GrasshoppersSuper League
- 31 October 2024Grasshoppers 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and Grasshoppers
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- Daniel Dos Santos51
- D. Moncada51
- Y. Cimignani40
Grasshoppers
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Lugano a 85.1% chance of the title and Grasshoppers 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on FC Lugano v Grasshoppers has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 75% / 16% / 9% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 72% / 18% / 10%: the biggest move is FC Lugano's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- FC Lugano win72%▼ −3
- Draw18%▲ +2
- Grasshoppers win10%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.67 expected goals for FC Lugano against 0.74 for Grasshoppers. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.66 for Grasshoppers.
How the model reaches 72% for FC Lugano to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Lugano to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FC Lugano's ratings add 15 points and Grasshoppers's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- FC Lugano's ratings57%+15
- Grasshoppers's ratings72%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Lugano at home · Grasshoppers away
League matches only, Super League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC LuganoGrasshoppers
FC Lugano are 1st after 13 Super League matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Grasshoppers are 10th after 13 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Lugano 13, Grasshoppers 13.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Grasshoppers have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Lugano
- at FK Jablonec26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 37%
- at FC Luzern29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 51%
- at FC Zurich5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 52%
- at FC Copenhagen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 25%
- vs FC Thun13 Dec · Super Leaguewin 67%
Grasshoppers
- vs FC Basel 189328 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at FC St. Gallen6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 16%
- at FC Zurich12 Dec · Super Leaguewin 23%
- vs FC Luzern19 Dec · Super Leaguewin 31%
- at FC Sion17 Jan · Super Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.