Lask Linz
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Lask Linz 2–1 Red Bull Salzburg
The model makes it 37% Lask Linz, 26% draw, 37% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lask Linz 1.54, Red Bull Salzburg 1.53.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Lask Linz are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- Lask Linz are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Rapid Vienna.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Grazer AK.
- Last 6 meetings: Lask Linz 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Lask Linz 2–1 Red Bull Salzburg.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Lask Linz
- L0-2Rapid Vienna11 October 2026
- D3-3away to TSV Hartberg20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sturm Graz13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
- D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026
- W3-0Sturm Graz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
- W4-1Austria Vienna30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lask Linz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lask Linz
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 10% today
Red Bull Salzburg
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 29% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 10 May 2026Lask Linz 2–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 10 April 2026Red Bull Salzburg 2–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 22 February 2026Lask Linz 1–5 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 23 August 2025Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 2 February 2025Lask Linz 2–1 Red Bull SalzburgCup
- 23 November 2024Red Bull Salzburg 1–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang50
- S. Adeniran41
- M. Usor23
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- K. Konaté40
- H. Tabaković30
- Y. Vertessen21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lask Linz carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.77 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Lask Linz and 1.53 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lask Linz rate 0.92 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.87 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Red Bull Salzburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lask Linz a 10.4% chance of the title and Red Bull Salzburg 28.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lask Linz against 1.53 for Red Bull Salzburg. Lask Linz's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.03 for Red Bull Salzburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lask Linz at home · Red Bull Salzburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Lask LinzRed Bull Salzburg
Lask Linz are 3rd after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd after 8 (between 2nd and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Lask Linz 8, Red Bull Salzburg 8.
Lask Linz score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Red Bull Salzburg have let in 0 there.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lask Linz have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lask Linz
- vs WSG Wattens31 Oct · Bundesligawin 67%
- vs Slovan Bratislava3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 49%
Red Bull Salzburg
- vs Austria Lustenau1 Nov · Bundesligawin 72%
- at Anderlecht5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.