Austria Lustenau
vs
Lask Linz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Lustenau 1–2 Lask Linz
The model makes it 24% Austria Lustenau, 25% draw, 51% Lask Linz — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.14, Lask Linz 2.22.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Austria Lustenau are 8th on 8 points from 7 games; Lask Linz are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Bundesliga.
- Austria Lustenau have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to SCR Altach.
- Lask Linz have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-3 draw away to TSV Hartberg.
- Last 6 meetings: Lask Linz 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 December 2023, ended Austria Lustenau 1–3 Lask Linz.
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz
Austria Lustenau
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
- W2-1Wolfsberger AC15 August 2026
Lask Linz
- D3-3away to TSV Hartberg20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sturm Graz13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
- W3-0SCR Altach29 August 2026
- W4-1Ried14 August 2026
What these results say
- Austria Lustenau scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz
- 9 December 2023Austria Lustenau 1–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 3 September 2023Lask Linz 2–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 24 February 2023Lask Linz 1–0 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 11 September 2022Austria Lustenau 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 14 April 2017Lask Linz 2–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 25 November 2016Austria Lustenau 2–4 Lask Linz2. Liga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun4 goals1 assist
- A. Verinac3 goals2 assists
Lask Linz
- C. Lang5 goals
- S. Adeniran4 goals1 assist
- M. Usor2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austria Lustenau carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.71 for Lask Linz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.22 for Lask Linz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Lustenau rate 0.53 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lask Linz rate 0.98 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Austria Lustenau a 0% chance of the title and Lask Linz 24.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Austria Lustenau against 2.22 for Lask Linz. Austria Lustenau's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.33 for Lask Linz.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austria Lustenau at home · Lask Linz away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Austria Lustenau 7, Lask Linz 7.
Austria Lustenau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Lask Linz have let in 2 there.
Lask Linz score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Austria Lustenau have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Austria Lustenau
- at Rapid Vienna24 Oct · Bundesligawin 18%
- at Red Bull Salzburg1 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
- vs Grazer AK7 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- at WSG Wattens21 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
Lask Linz
- at Sporting CP21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg25 Oct · Bundesligawin 39%
- vs WSG Wattens31 Oct · Bundesligawin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.