Ried
vs
Austria Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
The model makes it 39% Ried, 29% draw, 32% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ried 1.54, Austria Vienna 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Ried are 5th on 8 points from 7 games; Austria Vienna are 10th on 7 points from 7 games — Bundesliga.
- Ried have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Wolfsberger AC.
- Austria Vienna have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Grazer AK.
- Last 6 meetings: Austria Vienna 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended Ried 0–2 Austria Vienna.
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ried vs Austria Vienna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ried at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ried vs Austria Vienna
Ried
- W4-1Wolfsberger AC20 September 2026
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg11 September 2026
- L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
- W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
- L1-4away to Lask Linz14 August 2026
Austria Vienna
- D2-2away to Grazer AK19 September 2026
- W2-1Austria Lustenau13 September 2026
- L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Red Bull Salzburg30 August 2026
- W2-0away to TSV Hartberg16 August 2026
What these results say
- Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ried conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ried.
- Austria Vienna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Vienna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ried | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ried vs Austria Vienna
- 8 March 2026Ried 0–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Austria Vienna 3–2 RiedBundesliga
- 4 March 2023Ried 1–3 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 18 September 2022Austria Vienna 3–0 RiedBundesliga
- 23 October 2021Austria Vienna 4–1 RiedBundesliga
- 25 July 2021Ried 2–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Ried and Austria Vienna
Ried
- Evan Eghosa Aisowieren2 goals
Austria Vienna
- M. Fischer2 goals1 assist
- J. Hettwer2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ried carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.38 for Austria Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Ried and 1.26 for Austria Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ried rate 0.60 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Vienna rate 0.62 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ried the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ried against 1.26 for Austria Vienna. Ried's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.58 for Austria Vienna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ried at home · Austria Vienna away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Ried 7, Austria Vienna 7.
Ried score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Austria Vienna have let in 1 there.
Austria Vienna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Ried have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ried
- at Sturm Graz25 Oct · Bundesligawin 23%
- at SCR Altach31 Oct · Bundesligawin 35%
- vs Lask Linz7 Nov · Bundesligawin 28%
- at Wolfsberger AC22 Nov · Bundesligawin 34%
Austria Vienna
- at SCR Altach23 Oct · Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Rapid Vienna1 Nov · Bundesligawin 29%
- at WSG Wattens8 Nov · Bundesligawin 35%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.