Rapid Vienna
vs
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Rapid Vienna 2–1 TSV Hartberg
The model makes it 52% Rapid Vienna, 26% draw, 22% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Rapid Vienna 2.20, TSV Hartberg 1.03.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rapid Vienna are top on 18 points from 7 games; TSV Hartberg are 6th on 8 points from 7 games — Bundesliga.
- Rapid Vienna have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to WSG Wattens.
- TSV Hartberg are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Lask Linz.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 April 2026, ended Rapid Vienna 0–2 TSV Hartberg.
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid Vienna at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg
Rapid Vienna
- W3-0WSG Wattens18 September 2026
- W3-0away to Wolfsberger AC12 September 2026
- L1-5away to Red Bull Salzburg2 September 2026
- W3-1Sturm Graz30 August 2026
- W8-0Grazer AK16 August 2026
TSV Hartberg
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
- L0-2Austria Vienna16 August 2026
What these results say
- Rapid Vienna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rapid Vienna had three goals or more.
- Rapid Vienna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for TSV Hartberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 18 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg
- 22 April 2026Rapid Vienna 0–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 19 April 2026TSV Hartberg 2–2 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 7 February 2026Rapid Vienna 1–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 31 August 2025TSV Hartberg 0–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 9 March 2025TSV Hartberg 2–1 Rapid ViennaBundesliga
- 20 October 2024Rapid Vienna 2–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg
Rapid Vienna
- T. Adamsen4 goals2 assists
- E. Kara3 goals
- P. Dahl3 goals
TSV Hartberg
- A. Radulović2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rapid Vienna carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.4 for TSV Hartberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.20 goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.03 for TSV Hartberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rapid Vienna rate 0.88 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; TSV Hartberg rate 0.63 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rapid Vienna a 33.8% chance of the title and TSV Hartberg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid Vienna the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Rapid Vienna against 1.03 for TSV Hartberg. Rapid Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.54 for TSV Hartberg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rapid Vienna at home · TSV Hartberg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Rapid Vienna 7, TSV Hartberg 7.
Rapid Vienna score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); TSV Hartberg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rapid Vienna
- vs Austria Lustenau24 Oct · Bundesligawin 59%
- at Austria Vienna1 Nov · Bundesligawin 43%
- vs Wolfsberger AC6 Nov · Bundesligawin 58%
- at Grazer AK21 Nov · Bundesligawin 47%
TSV Hartberg
- vs Wolfsberger AC25 Oct · Bundesligawin 45%
- at Grazer AK30 Oct · Bundesligawin 35%
- vs SCR Altach8 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
- at Lask Linz21 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.