TSV Hartberg
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: TSV Hartberg 2–1 Wolfsberger AC
The model makes it 53% TSV Hartberg, 25% draw, 22% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.95, Wolfsberger AC 1.07.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to TSV Hartberg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- TSV Hartberg are 6th on 11 points from 8 games; Wolfsberger AC are bottom on 5 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- TSV Hartberg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-3 win at home to Austria Lustenau.
- Wolfsberger AC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to SCR Altach.
- Last 6 meetings: TSV Hartberg 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 November 2025, ended Wolfsberger AC 1–2 TSV Hartberg.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts TSV Hartberg at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
TSV Hartberg
- W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
Wolfsberger AC
- L0-3away to SCR Altach11 October 2026
- L1-4away to Ried20 September 2026
- L0-3Rapid Vienna12 September 2026
- L1-3Lask Linz1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK29 August 2026
What these results say
- TSV Hartberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wolfsberger AC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wolfsberger AC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wolfsberger AC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
TSV Hartberg
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
Wolfsberger AC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
- 8 November 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–2 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 20 September 2025TSV Hartberg 2–2 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 1 May 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–0 TSV HartbergCup
- 1 March 2025TSV Hartberg 0–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 5 October 2024Wolfsberger AC 2–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 10 December 2023TSV Hartberg 2–0 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann31
- M. Hoffman30
- A. Radulović22
Wolfsberger AC
GoalsAssists
- G. Vrioni40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.23 for Wolfsberger AC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.07 for Wolfsberger AC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.69 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolfsberger AC rate 0.50 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives TSV Hartberg a 0.1% chance of the title and Wolfsberger AC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives TSV Hartberg the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 1.07 for Wolfsberger AC. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.74 for Wolfsberger AC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
TSV Hartberg at home · Wolfsberger AC away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
TSV HartbergWolfsberger AC
TSV Hartberg are 6th after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Wolfsberger AC are 12th after 8 (between 2nd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: TSV Hartberg 8, Wolfsberger AC 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
TSV Hartberg
- at Grazer AK30 Oct · Bundesligawin 37%
- vs SCR Altach8 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
- at Lask Linz21 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
- at Ried29 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
Wolfsberger AC
- vs Sturm Graz1 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- at Rapid Vienna6 Nov · Bundesligawin 12%
- vs Ried22 Nov · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Austria Vienna28 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.