Estudiantes La Plata
vs
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 San Lorenzo
The model makes it 43% Estudiantes La Plata, 35% draw, 22% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.33, 2.86 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (21%).
Expected goals: Estudiantes La Plata 1.07, San Lorenzo 0.52.
Both teams to score: 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Estudiantes La Plata are 11th on 10 points from 10 games; San Lorenzo are 10th on 11 points from 11 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Estudiantes La Plata have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Lanus.
- San Lorenzo are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Defensa Y Justicia.
- Last 6 meetings: San Lorenzo 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended San Lorenzo 1–0 Estudiantes La Plata.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estudiantes La Plata at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
Estudiantes La Plata
- L1-2away to Lanus22 September 2026
- W2-1Platense12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield6 September 2026
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Sarmiento Junin23 August 2026
San Lorenzo
- L0-3away to Defensa Y Justicia3 October 2026
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Instituto Cordoba1 September 2026
What these results say
- Estudiantes La Plata failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Lorenzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for San Lorenzo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Estudiantes La Plata | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estudiantes La Plata vs San Lorenzo
- 3 April 2026San Lorenzo 1–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 November 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 13 February 2024San Lorenzo 1–1 Estudiantes La PlataCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 20 September 2023Estudiantes La Plata 0–0 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 21 June 2023Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 August 2022San Lorenzo 0–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
The two sides
Estudiantes La Plata carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.5 for San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Estudiantes La Plata and 0.52 for San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estudiantes La Plata rate 0.77 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; San Lorenzo rate 0.53 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour San Lorenzo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estudiantes La Plata the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Estudiantes La Plata against 0.52 for San Lorenzo. Estudiantes La Plata's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.13 for San Lorenzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estudiantes La Plata at home · San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Estudiantes La Plata 27, San Lorenzo 27.
Estudiantes La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); San Lorenzo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Estudiantes La Plata
- at Flamengo20 Oct · CONMEBOL Libertadoreswin 16%
- at Union Santa Fe25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 33%
San Lorenzo
- vs Newell's Old Boys25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 33%
- at Velez Sarsfield1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 21%
- vs Platense8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.