Sarmiento Junin
vs
Barracas Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Barracas Central
The model makes it 39% Sarmiento Junin, 31% draw, 30% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.25, Barracas Central 0.97.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Sarmiento Junin are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; Barracas Central are 8th on 15 points from 11 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Racing Club.
- Barracas Central have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Atletico Tucuman.
- Last 6 meetings: Sarmiento Junin 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Barracas Central 1–2 Sarmiento Junin.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sarmiento Junin at 39% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
Sarmiento Junin
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
Barracas Central
- W3-2away to Atletico Tucuman3 October 2026
- L0-1Independiente Rivadavia21 September 2026
- D1-1away to Banfield14 September 2026
- D0-0Argentinos Juniors7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tigre1 September 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barracas Central failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Barracas Central had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 8 | Barracas Central | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central
- 2 April 2026Barracas Central 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 September 2025Barracas Central 0–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 March 2025Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 May 2024Barracas Central 1–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 February 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 2 October 2023Barracas Central 1–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel13 goals4 assists
Barracas Central
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarmiento Junin carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.6 for Barracas Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 0.97 for Barracas Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarmiento Junin rate 0.90 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barracas Central rate 0.68 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarmiento Junin the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 0.97 for Barracas Central. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.13 for Barracas Central.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarmiento Junin at home · Barracas Central away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Sarmiento Junin 26, Barracas Central 26.
Barracas Central score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Sarmiento Junin have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sarmiento Junin
- at Gimnasia La Plata25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Rosario Central1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 34%
- at Tigre8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
Barracas Central
- vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 47%
- at Belgrano Cordoba1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 24%
- vs Racing Club8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.