Racing Club
vs
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Racing Club 1–0 Independiente
The model makes it 40% Racing Club, 30% draw, 30% Independiente — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Racing Club 1.36, Independiente 1.03.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Racing Club are 14th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 8 points from 10 games; Independiente are 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 17 points from 11 games.
- Racing Club have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Sarmiento Junin.
- Independiente have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Instituto Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Independiente 1–0 Racing Club.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Racing Club vs Independiente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Club at 40% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Racing Club vs Independiente
Racing Club
- W3-1Sarmiento Junin19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Huracan14 September 2026
- L1-2Atletico Tucuman7 September 2026
- L1-3away to Independiente Rivadavia31 August 2026
- D1-1Boca Juniors24 August 2026
Independiente
- L1-4Instituto Cordoba2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Union Santa Fe19 September 2026
- D1-1San Lorenzo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago6 September 2026
- L0-3Gimnasia Mendoza30 August 2026
What these results say
- Racing Club scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Racing Club conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Racing Club.
- Independiente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Racing Club | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Independiente | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Club vs Independiente
- 4 April 2026Independiente 1–0 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 September 2025Racing Club 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 March 2025Independiente 1–1 Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
- 25 August 2024Racing Club 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 February 2024Independiente 0–1 Racing ClubCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 30 September 2023Racing Club 0–2 IndependienteCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Racing Club and Independiente
Racing Club
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Racing Club carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.62 for Independiente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Racing Club and 1.03 for Independiente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Club rate 0.82 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Independiente rate 0.85 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Club the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Racing Club against 1.03 for Independiente. Racing Club's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.35 for Independiente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Racing Club at home · Independiente away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Racing Club 28, Independiente 28.
Racing Club score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Independiente have let in 7 there.
Independiente score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Racing Club have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Racing Club
- at River Plate25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 26%
- vs Aldosivi1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 45%
- at Barracas Central8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Independiente
- vs Boca Juniors25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 31%
- at Defensa Y Justicia1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
- vs Deportivo Riestra8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.