Regular Season - 9 · 4 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League prediction

Guldensporen Stadion, Kortrijk
Referee: B. Van Driessche

Our model says: Kortrijk 0–1 KV Mechelen

The model makes it 27% Kortrijk, 28% draw, 45% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Kortrijk 1.05, KV Mechelen 1.53.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.

One-sided: KV Mechelen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Kortrijk's rating is built from 8 Jupiler Pro League matches and KV Mechelen's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.

Key facts

  • Kortrijk are 17th on 3 points from 8 games; KV Mechelen are 14th on 6 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
  • Kortrijk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Genk.
  • KV Mechelen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to St. Truiden.
  • Last 6 meetings: KV Mechelen 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 November 2024, ended Kortrijk 3–1 KV Mechelen.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

51%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Kortrijk win Draw KV Mechelen win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–07%
  7. 2–16%

Scores read Kortrijk first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KV Mechelen at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Kortrijk

Jupiler Pro League

  • L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
  • W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
  • L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière13 September 2026
  • L0-2Zulte Waregem6 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Anderlecht3 September 2026

KV Mechelen

Jupiler Pro League

  • W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026
  • L0-1Anderlecht11 September 2026
  • L0-4KVC Westerlo5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to RAAL La Louvière29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kortrijk failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • KV Mechelen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • KV Mechelen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Kortrijk8107218-163
14KV Mechelen8134917-86

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Kortrijk

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 85% today

Win 79%
Draw 86%
Defeat 89%

KV Mechelen

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 14% today

Win 10%
Draw 15%
Defeat 20%

From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

  • 29 November 2024Kortrijk 3–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 20 October 2024KV Mechelen 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 24 February 2024KV Mechelen 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 26 November 2023Kortrijk 0–3 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 21 January 2023KV Mechelen 3–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 11 January 2023Kortrijk 0–1 KV MechelenCup

The two sides

Kortrijk carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.61 for KV Mechelen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.05 goals for Kortrijk and 1.53 for KV Mechelen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Kortrijk rate 0.49 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KV Mechelen rate 0.81 and 1.32.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

How the call on Kortrijk v KV Mechelen has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 29% / 30% / 41% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 27% / 28% / 45%: the biggest move is KV Mechelen's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Kortrijk win27%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. KV Mechelen win45%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives KV Mechelen the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kortrijk against 1.53 for KV Mechelen. Kortrijk's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.32 for KV Mechelen.

How the model reaches 45% for KV Mechelen to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for KV Mechelen to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Kortrijk's ratings add 28 points and KV Mechelen's ratings take away 13 points, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage30%−6
  3. Kortrijk's ratings58%+28
  4. KV Mechelen's ratings45%−13

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

KortrijkKV Mechelen
8Matches8
1W 0D 7LRecord1W 3D 4L
2 0.3 per gameGoals scored9 1.1 per game
18 2.3 per gameGoals conceded17 2.1 per game
1 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8
6 of 8Failed to score5 of 8
–Penalties scored2 of 2
16 2.0 per gameYellow cards13 1.6 per game
3Red cards0
3-4-2-1 3×Usual shape3-4-2-1 4×

Kortrijk at home · KV Mechelen away

4Played4
1W 0D 3LRecord0W 2D 2L
2–8Goals for – against2–6
1 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Kortrijk 8, KV Mechelen 8.

Kortrijk scored 101100
KV Mechelen conceded 337132
KV Mechelen scored 102112
Kortrijk conceded 214055

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Kortrijk

  • at Gent8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 8%
  • vs Union St. Gilloise22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 9%
  • at OH Leuven27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
  • vs Lommel United12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%

KV Mechelen

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.