Kapaz
vs
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Kapaz 0–1 Qarabag
The model makes it 21% Kapaz, 28% draw, 51% Qarabag — fair odds of 4.76, 3.57 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Kapaz 0.82, Qarabag 1.56.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Qarabag are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kapaz's rating is built from 43 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Qarabag's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kapaz are 6th on 17 points from 10 games; Qarabag are 4th on 19 points from 10 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Kapaz have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Neftchi Baku.
- Qarabag are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Turan.
- Last 6 meetings: Qarabag 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Kapaz 1–0 Qarabag.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kapaz vs Qarabag
Has the model earned this number?
Qarabag at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kapaz vs Qarabag
Kapaz
Premyer Liqa
- L0-1away to Neftchi Baku6 November 2026
- W1-0Imisli FK1 November 2026
- W2-1away to Safa Baku24 October 2026
- D1-1Zira18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Araz9 October 2026
Qarabag
Premyer Liqa
- L0-1Turan6 November 2026
- D0-0away to Qabala31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sabah FA25 October 2026
- D3-3Neftchi Baku17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Imisli FK11 October 2026
What these results say
- Kapaz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kapaz had two goals or fewer.
- Qarabag failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kapaz | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 4 | Qarabag | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kapaz
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
Qarabag
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 20% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kapaz vs Qarabag
- 20 March 2026Kapaz 1–0 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 24 January 2026Qarabag 0–2 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 4 October 2025Qarabag 1–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 18 May 2025Qarabag 3–0 KapazPremyer Liqa
- 15 March 2025Kapaz 0–0 QarabagPremyer Liqa
- 18 October 2024Kapaz 0–5 QarabagPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kapaz a 0% chance of the title and Qarabag 19.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qarabag the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Kapaz against 1.56 for Qarabag. Kapaz's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.1 for Qarabag.
How the model reaches 51% for Qarabag to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Qarabag to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kapaz's ratings add 10 points and Qarabag's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Kapaz's ratings38%+10
- Qarabag's ratings51%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kapaz at home · Qarabag away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Kapaz 10, Qarabag 10.
Kapaz score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Qarabag have let in 2 there.
Qarabag score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Kapaz have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kapaz
- at Turan28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Şamaxı FK5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 24%
- at Qabala13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 32%
- at Qarabag17 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 12%
- at Sumqayıt19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
Qarabag
- vs Sumqayıt28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 69%
- at Araz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 60%
- vs Zira13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 61%
- vs Kapaz17 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 66%
- at Safa Baku19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.