AIK Stockholm
vs
BK Hacken
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: AIK Stockholm 1–2 BK Hacken
The model makes it 32% AIK Stockholm, 24% draw, 44% BK Hacken — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AIK Stockholm 1.58, BK Hacken 1.95.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to BK Hacken: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. AIK Stockholm's rating is built from 55 Allsvenskan matches and BK Hacken's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 682 matches.
Key facts
- AIK Stockholm are 8th on 37 points from 25 games; BK Hacken are 4th on 45 points from 25 games — Allsvenskan.
- AIK Stockholm have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Sirius.
- BK Hacken are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Degerfors IF.
- Last 6 meetings: BK Hacken 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 July 2026, ended BK Hacken 0–0 AIK Stockholm.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BK Hacken at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan
- W2-1away to Sirius24 October 2026
- D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026
- L5-6IF Brommapojkarna10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Halmstad20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
BK Hacken
Allsvenskan
- W4-0Degerfors IF24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Malmo FF18 October 2026
- W3-0Orgryte IS11 October 2026
- W5-0away to Kalmar FF20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF11 September 2026
What these results say
- AIK Stockholm scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for AIK Stockholm.
- BK Hacken went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- BK Hacken scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- BK Hacken won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40 | 43 | -3 | 37 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 47 | 30 | +17 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken
- 27 July 2026BK Hacken 0–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 9 March 2026AIK Stockholm 4–0 BK HackenSvenska Cupen
- 26 October 2025AIK Stockholm 2–2 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 14 May 2025BK Hacken 3–3 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 6 October 2024AIK Stockholm 0–2 BK HackenAllsvenskan
- 2 June 2024BK Hacken 4–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove93
BK Hacken
GoalsAssists
- G. Lindgren131
- Julius Lindberg98
- A. Svanbäck78
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AIK Stockholm carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.58 for BK Hacken. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.95 for BK Hacken. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AIK Stockholm rate 0.73 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BK Hacken rate 0.78 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AIK Stockholm a 0% chance of the title and BK Hacken 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BK Hacken the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for AIK Stockholm against 1.95 for BK Hacken. AIK Stockholm's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.33 for BK Hacken.
How the model reaches 44% for BK Hacken to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for BK Hacken to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, AIK Stockholm's ratings add 28 points and BK Hacken's ratings take away 16 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- AIK Stockholm's ratings60%+28
- BK Hacken's ratings44%−16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AIK Stockholm at home · BK Hacken away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: AIK Stockholm 25, BK Hacken 25.
AIK Stockholm score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); BK Hacken have let in 4 there.
BK Hacken score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); AIK Stockholm have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AIK Stockholm
- vs Degerfors IF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 55%
- at Kalmar FF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
BK Hacken
- vs IF Elfsborg22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 43%
- at Djurgardens IF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.