IFK Goteborg
vs
Malmo FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IFK Goteborg 1–2 Malmo FF
The model makes it 36% IFK Goteborg, 27% draw, 37% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.40, Malmo FF 1.44.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. IFK Goteborg's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and Malmo FF's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 682 matches.
Key facts
- IFK Goteborg are 9th on 36 points from 24 games; Malmo FF are 7th on 37 points from 25 games — Allsvenskan.
- IFK Goteborg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to AIK Stockholm.
- Malmo FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to IF Elfsborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Malmo FF 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Malmo FF 4–0 IFK Goteborg.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Malmo FF at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan
- D2-2away to AIK Stockholm17 October 2026
- W1-0Vasteras SK FK9 October 2026
- W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
- W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
Malmo FF
Allsvenskan
- D0-0away to IF Elfsborg23 October 2026
- L0-1BK Hacken18 October 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
- W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
What these results say
- IFK Goteborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Malmo FF had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 36 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 34 | +4 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF
- 12 July 2026Malmo FF 4–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 24 August 2025Malmo FF 0–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 25 May 2025IFK Goteborg 1–0 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
- 16 March 2025Malmo FF 3–2 IFK GoteborgSvenska Cupen
- 28 October 2024Malmo FF 2–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 13 May 2024IFK Goteborg 0–3 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson72
- T. Heintz65
Malmo FF
GoalsAssists
- E. Botheim103
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.46 for Malmo FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.44 for Malmo FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.64 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malmo FF rate 0.62 and 1.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Malmo FF the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.44 for Malmo FF. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.35 for Malmo FF.
How the model reaches 37% for Malmo FF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Malmo FF to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, IFK Goteborg's ratings add 28 points and Malmo FF's ratings take away 23 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- IFK Goteborg's ratings60%+28
- Malmo FF's ratings37%−23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
IFK Goteborg at home · Malmo FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: IFK Goteborg 24, Malmo FF 25.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
IFK Goteborg
- at Hammarby FF23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 17%
- vs Sirius29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 31%
Malmo FF
- at Mjallby AIF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 40%
- vs IF Brommapojkarna29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.