30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Kalju Nomme 2-1 Shelbourne.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Kalju Nomme, 23% draw, 25% Shelbourne — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kalju Nomme at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kalju Nomme95%Draw5%Shelbourne0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽D. Kelly
O. Musolitin
31'
42'
D. Kelly
🔁D. Mashchenkoout: D. Sotsugov
46'
46'
🔁D. Kellyout: W. Jarvis
46'
🔁P. Barrettout: O. Casey
46'
🔁R. Freitasout: D. Ring
⚽E. E. Lotar Eyangassist: H. Perk
49'
🔁M. Orlovout: I. Jabir
62'
🔁T. Baptistaout: N. Ivanov
62'
63'
🔁K. McInroyout: J. Lunney
🔁A. Borolinstsikovout: A. Nikolajev
67'
73'
🔁J. Norrisout: S. Gannon
🔁B. Vastsukout: M. Tambedou
74'
⚽I. Jabirassist: N. Ivanov
75'
77'
J. Lunney
M. Tambedou
78'
N. Andreev
90'
90+1'
D. Ring
N. Ivanov
90+2'
I. Jabir
90+2'

Line-ups

Kalju Nomme 4-4-2
  • 1Henri PerkG
  • 78Danyl MashchenkoD
  • 50Maksim PodholjuzinD
  • 46Roko VukušićD
  • 4Alex BoronilštšikovD
  • 26Rommi SihtM
  • 8Oleksandr MusolitinM
  • 59Bogdan VastsukM
  • 21Tiago BaptistaM
  • 11Mihhail OrlovF
  • 17Enrique EsonoM
Substitutes
  • 88Daniil SotsugovD
  • 10Nikita IvanovM
  • 30Ibrahim JabirF
  • 69Maksim PavlovG
  • 20Modou TambedouD
  • 74Fjodor JekimovD
  • 5Uku KorreD
  • 22Aleksandr NikolajevD
  • 7Daniil TarassenkovD
Coach: Nikita Andreev
Shelbourne 4-3-3
  • 19Eddie BeachG
  • 25Milan MbengD
  • 4Kameron LedwidgeD
  • 29Paddy BarrettD
  • 18James NorrisD
  • 17Daniel KellyM
  • 23Kerr McInroyM
  • 14Ali CooteM
  • 27Evan CaffreyM
  • 20Rodrigo FreitasF
  • 22Sean MooreF
Substitutes
  • 16Odhran CaseyD
  • 36Will JarvisF
  • 44Daniel RingF
  • 6Jonathan LunneyM
  • 73Finn MoylanG
  • 13Murray JohnsonG
  • 15Sam BoneD
  • 2Sean GannonD
  • 55James RocheD
Coach: Lorcan Fitzgerald

Form going into Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne

Kalju Nomme

  • L2-5away to Shelbourne23 July 2026

Shelbourne

  • W5-2Kalju Nomme23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Kalju Nomme vs Shelbourne

  • 30 July 2026Kalju Nomme 2–1 ShelbourneUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Shelbourne 5–2 Kalju NommeUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Kalju Nomme and Shelbourne

Kalju Nomme

No leading scorers listed yet.

Shelbourne

  • H. Wood7 goals5 assists
  • J. Martin6 goals2 assists
  • D. Kelly6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.