Ilves
vs
Stjarnan
Final score: Ilves 2-1 Stjarnan.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Ilves, 20% draw, 27% Stjarnan — fair odds of 1.89, 5.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Ilves 2.35, Stjarnan 1.65.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Ilves vs Stjarnan
- 30 July 2026Ilves 1–1 StjarnanUEFA Europa Conference League
- 23 July 2026Stjarnan 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Ilves against 1.65 for Stjarnan. Ilves's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/2.49 for Stjarnan.