30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ilves vs Stjarnan UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Ilves 1-0 Stjarnan.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Ilves, 21% draw, 28% Stjarnan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ilves at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sebastian Suvanne
-5'
Oskari Multala
24'
39'
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
🔁O. Multalaout: S. Baranov
46'
🔁K. Walliusout: G. Bamba
46'
⚽J. Kiloassist: J. Kanga
52'
73'
🔁B. Warenout: D. Matthiasson
🔁J. Kiloout: R. Riski
75'
85'
Gudmundur Baldvin Nokkvason
🔁O. Petterssonout: L. Ala-Myllymaki
85'
90+1'
Þorri Mar Þórisson
91'
🔁T. Thorissonout: B. Hauksson
91'
🔁B. Ingasonout: A. Hauksson
🔁T. Hytonenout: E. Tamminen
98'
Anton Popovitch
106'
107'
⚽F. Krkalic (OG)
111'
🔁E. Atlasonout: A. Vilhjalmsson
111'
🔁O. Eggertssonout: A. Bjarnason
⚽T. Miettunenassist: M. Rale
113'
117'
Alex Þór Hauksson

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 4O. Pettersson
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 30J. KangaM
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 9T. HytonenF
Substitutes
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 10R. RiskiF
  • 11H. Coulibaly
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 20O. TiitinenM
  • 24V. KumpuD
Coach: Joni Lehtonen
Stjarnan 4-3-3
  • 12A. Olafsson
  • 4T. ThorissonD
  • 5G. KristjanssonD
  • 3G. KjeldsenD
  • 32O. Orvarsson
  • 18G. NokkvasonM
  • 8J. GunnarssonM
  • 23B. WarenM
  • 7O. Eggertsson
  • 22E. AtlasonF
  • 11B. IngasonM
Substitutes
  • 6S. T. IngimarssonD
  • 10D. Matthiasson
  • 14B. HaukssonD
  • 29A. HaukssonM
  • 94A. VilhjalmssonF
  • 1D. Bergmann GylfasonG
  • 83D. BeicG
  • 19A. LeifssonD
  • 24S. Jonsson
Coach: Jokull Elisabetarson

Form going into Ilves vs Stjarnan

Ilves

  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

Stjarnan

  • W1-0Ilves23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Ilves vs Stjarnan

  • 30 July 2026Ilves 1–1 StjarnanUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Stjarnan 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Ilves and Stjarnan

Ilves

  • T. Hytönen6 goals
  • J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
  • M. Stjopin2 goals1 assists

Stjarnan

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.