30 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ilves vs Stjarnan UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tammelan Stadion, Tampere
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Ilves 1-0 Stjarnan.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Ilves, 21% draw, 28% Stjarnan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.76 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Stjarnan 1–0 Ilves (23 Jul) →

Ilves went through on penalties, after 1–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ilves at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Sebastian Suvanne
-5'
Oskari Multala
24'
39'
Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson
🔁O. Multalaout: S. Baranov
46'
🔁K. Walliusout: G. Bamba
46'
⚽J. Kiloassist: J. Kanga
52'
73'
🔁B. Warenout: D. Matthiasson
🔁J. Kiloout: R. Riski
75'
85'
Gudmundur Baldvin Nokkvason
🔁O. Petterssonout: L. Ala-Myllymaki
85'
90+1'
Þorri Mar Þórisson
91'
🔁T. Thorissonout: B. Hauksson
91'
🔁B. Ingasonout: A. Hauksson
🔁T. Hytonenout: E. Tamminen
98'
Anton Popovitch
106'
107'
⚽F. Krkalic (OG)
111'
🔁E. Atlasonout: A. Vilhjalmsson
111'
🔁O. Eggertssonout: A. Bjarnason
⚽T. Miettunenassist: M. Rale
113'
117'
Alex Þór Hauksson

Line-ups

Ilves 3-4-2-1
  • 12F. KrkalicG
  • 16T. MiettunenD
  • 5S. VaisanenD
  • 3M. RaleD
  • 4O. Pettersson
  • 22O. MultalaM
  • 14A. PopovitchM
  • 13K. WalliusM
  • 30J. KangaM
  • 28J. KiloM
  • 9T. HytonenF
Substitutes
  • 1O. VirtanenG
  • 31R. LeislahtiG
  • 10R. RiskiF
  • 11H. Coulibaly
  • 15L. Ala-MyllymakiM
  • 17S. BaranovM
  • 19G. BambaD
  • 20O. TiitinenM
  • 24V. KumpuD
Coach: Joni Lehtonen
Stjarnan 4-3-3
  • 12A. Olafsson
  • 4T. ThorissonD
  • 5G. KristjanssonD
  • 3G. KjeldsenD
  • 32O. Orvarsson
  • 18G. NokkvasonM
  • 8J. GunnarssonM
  • 23B. WarenM
  • 7O. Eggertsson
  • 22E. AtlasonF
  • 11B. IngasonM
Substitutes
  • 6S. T. IngimarssonD
  • 10D. Matthiasson
  • 14B. HaukssonD
  • 29A. HaukssonM
  • 94A. VilhjalmssonF
  • 1D. Bergmann GylfasonG
  • 83D. BeicG
  • 19A. LeifssonD
  • 24S. Jonsson
Coach: Jokull Elisabetarson

Form going into Ilves vs Stjarnan

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

Stjarnan

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Ilves23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ilves vs Stjarnan

  • 23 July 2026Stjarnan 1–0 IlvesUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Ilves beat Stjarnan 1–0. The model had made a win for Ilves its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.