Shelbourne vs Kalju Nomme UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Shelbourne 5-2 Kalju Nomme.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Shelbourne, 50% draw, 23% Kalju Nomme — fair odds of 3.70, 2.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Kalju Nomme v Shelbourne, 30 Jul →
Shelbourne went through 6–4 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 19Eddie BeachG
- 25Milan MbengD
- 29Paddy BarrettD
- 4Kameron LedwidgeD
- 18James NorrisD
- 22Sean MooreF
- 27Evan CaffreyM
- 21Jack Henry-FrancisM
- 14Ali CooteM
- 20Rodrigo FreitasF
- 17Daniel KellyM
- 23Kerr McInroyM
- 36Will JarvisF
- 15Sam BoneD
- 6Jonathan LunneyM
- 44Daniel RingF
- 13Murray JohnsonG
- 2Sean GannonD
- 55James RocheD
- 60Killian RyanM
- 1Henri PerkG
- 78Danyl MashchenkoD
- 50Maksim PodholjuzinD
- 46Roko VukušićD
- 22Aleksandr NikolajevD
- 26Rommi SihtM
- 20Modou TambedouD
- 8Alexander MusolitinM
- 59Bogdan VastsukM
- 10Nikita IvanovM
- 17Enrique EsonoM
- 21Tiago BaptistaM
- 4Alex BoronilštšikovD
- 11Mihhail OrlovF
- 88Daniil SotsugovD
- 69Maksim PavlovG
- 5Uku KorreD
- 7Daniil TarassenkovD
- 9Godwin ChinemerenF
- 30Ibrahim JabirF
Leading scorers: Shelbourne and Kalju Nomme
Shelbourne
GoalsAssists
- H. Wood85
- D. Kelly84
- J. Martin82
Kalju Nomme
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Shelbourne beat Kalju Nomme 5–2. The model had leaned towards a draw at 50% and given a win for Shelbourne 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Freitas 3' for Shelbourne, S. Moore 21' for Shelbourne, A. Coote 25' for Shelbourne, E. E. Lotar Eyang 40' for Kalju Nomme, S. Moore 47' for Shelbourne, D. Ring 89' for Shelbourne, E. E. Lotar Eyang 90' for Kalju Nomme.