Italy
vs
France
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Italy 0–1 France
The model makes it 31% Italy, 30% draw, 39% France — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Italy 1.08, France 1.26.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,071 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Italy's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; France's from its last 6 matches.
Key facts
- Italy are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games; France are top on 10 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League A.
- Italy are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Türkiye.
- France are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Belgium.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended France 1–1 Italy.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Italy vs France
Has the model earned this number?
It puts France at 39% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 3,897 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Italy vs France
Italy
UEFA Nations League
- W3-1Türkiye5 October 2026
- D1-1away to France2 October 2026
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
France
UEFA Nations League
- W4-1Belgium5 October 2026
- D1-1Italy2 October 2026
- W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
What these results say
- Italy conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Italy scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Italy.
- France went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- France scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- France won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Italy vs France
- 2 October 2026France 1–1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 17 November 2024Italy 1–3 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 6 September 2024France 1–3 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 1 June 2018France 3–1 ItalyFriendlies
- 17 June 2008France 0–2 ItalyEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Italy and France
Italy
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Italy carry a model rating of 7.28 against 7.39 for France. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Italy and 1.26 for France. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Italy rate 1.35 in attack and 0.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; France rate 1.74 and 0.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives France the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Italy against 1.26 for France. Italy's attack/defence rating is 1.35/0.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.74/0.59 for France.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 39% for France to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for France to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Italy's ratings add 2 points and France's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Both sides at this match's level33%−1
- Italy's ratings35%+2
- France's ratings39%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
Italy
- at Belgium15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 31%
France
- vs Türkiye15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.