Montenegro
vs
Latvia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Montenegro 1–0 Latvia
The model makes it 54% Montenegro, 27% draw, 19% Latvia — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Montenegro 1.64, Latvia 0.75.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,688 settled matches.
One-sided: Montenegro are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Montenegro's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Latvia's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- Montenegro are top on 10 points from 4 games; Latvia are bottom on 1 point from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Montenegro are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Armenia.
- Latvia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Cyprus.
- Last 4 meetings: Montenegro 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Latvia 1–2 Montenegro.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Montenegro vs Latvia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Montenegro at 54% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 1,276 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Montenegro vs Latvia
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Armenia5 October 2026
- W2-1away to Latvia2 October 2026
- W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
- W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026
Latvia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Cyprus5 October 2026
- L1-2Montenegro2 October 2026
- D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
- L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026
What these results say
- Montenegro went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Montenegro won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Montenegro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Latvia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Latvia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Montenegro vs Latvia
- 2 October 2026Latvia 1–2 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
- 7 September 2021Montenegro 0–0 LatviaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 24 March 2021Latvia 1–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 7 October 2020Montenegro 1–1 LatviaFriendlies
The two sides
Montenegro carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.45 for Latvia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Montenegro and 0.75 for Latvia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Montenegro rate 1.01 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Latvia rate 0.51 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montenegro the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Montenegro against 0.75 for Latvia. Montenegro's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.2 for Latvia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 54% for Montenegro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Montenegro to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Montenegro's ratings add 11 points and Latvia's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Montenegro's ratings47%+11
- Latvia's ratings54%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
Montenegro
- at Cyprus15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 40%
Latvia
- vs Armenia15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.