Santa Fe
vs
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Santa Fe 1–0 Deportivo Pasto
The model makes it 59% Santa Fe, 25% draw, 16% Deportivo Pasto — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Santa Fe 1.81, Deportivo Pasto 0.68.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,635 settled matches.
One-sided: Santa Fe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Santa Fe's rating is built from 92 Colombian Primera A matches and Deportivo Pasto's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,239 matches.
Key facts
- Santa Fe are 4th on 28 points from 15 games; Deportivo Pasto are bottom on 12 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Santa Fe have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Bucaramanga.
- Deportivo Pasto have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Deportes Tolima.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Santa Fe.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 59% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 1,238 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
Primera A
- W2-1Bucaramanga27 October 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Llaneros18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
Deportivo Pasto
Primera A
- W1-0away to Deportes Tolima26 October 2026
- L0-3away to Atletico Nacional23 October 2026
- L0-1Alianza Valledupar20 October 2026
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
What these results say
- Santa Fe won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Pasto failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Fe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Santa Fe
Chance to finish top of the Clausura · 3% today
Deportivo Pasto
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
- 23 April 2026Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Santa FePrimera A
- 20 September 2025Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 5 April 2025Santa Fe 1–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 2 December 2024Santa Fe 1–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 29 November 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
- 17 July 2024Santa Fe 2–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega143
- N. Bustos115
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.32 for Deportivo Pasto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Santa Fe and 0.68 for Deportivo Pasto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Fe rate 0.78 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Pasto rate 0.55 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Fe a 2.6% chance of the title and Deportivo Pasto 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,402 correct results out of 4,996 settled predictions (48%), with 499 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Santa Fe against 0.68 for Deportivo Pasto. Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.6 for Deportivo Pasto.
How the model reaches 59% for Santa Fe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Santa Fe to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Santa Fe's ratings add 8 points and Deportivo Pasto's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Santa Fe's ratings51%+8
- Deportivo Pasto's ratings59%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santa Fe at home · Deportivo Pasto away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Santa Fe 37, Deportivo Pasto 35.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Deportivo Pasto have let in 7 there.
Deportivo Pasto score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Santa Fe have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Santa Fe
- at Internacional de Bogota12 Nov · Primera Awin 40%
Deportivo Pasto
- vs Junior12 Nov · Primera Awin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.