San Marino
vs
Belarus
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: San Marino 0–2 Belarus
The model makes it 9% San Marino, 18% draw, 73% Belarus — fair odds of 11.11, 5.56 and 1.37. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (14%).
Expected goals: San Marino 0.61, Belarus 2.56.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,688 settled matches.
One-sided: Belarus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. San Marino's rating is built from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking; Belarus's from its last 6 matches, anchored on the FIFA ranking.
Key facts
- San Marino are bottom on 0 points from 4 games; Belarus are 2nd on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- San Marino have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Albania.
- Belarus are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Finland.
- Last 3 meetings: Belarus 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Belarus 4–0 San Marino.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: San Marino vs Belarus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Belarus at 73% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 406 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.4%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into San Marino vs Belarus
San Marino
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Albania6 October 2026
- L0-4away to Belarus3 October 2026
- L0-3Albania29 September 2026
- L0-7Finland26 September 2026
Belarus
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0Finland6 October 2026
- W4-0San Marino3 October 2026
- D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
- L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026
What these results say
- San Marino did not win any of these 4 matches.
- San Marino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for San Marino had three goals or more.
- Belarus kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Belarus had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: San Marino vs Belarus
- 3 October 2026Belarus 4–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
- 18 November 2018San Marino 0–2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
- 8 September 2018Belarus 5–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
A clear gap in the ratings
San Marino carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.81 for Belarus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.61 goals for San Marino and 2.56 for Belarus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Marino rate 0.43 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belarus rate 0.97 and 1.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Belarus the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.61 expected goals for San Marino against 2.56 for Belarus. San Marino's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.05 for Belarus.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
How the model reaches 73% for Belarus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Belarus to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, San Marino's ratings add 19 points and Belarus's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 73%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- San Marino's ratings53%+19
- Belarus's ratings73%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Next match, by difficulty
San Marino
- at Finland15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 6%
Belarus
- vs Albania15 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.