13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result

Right to Dream Park, Farum
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Nordsjaelland 2-0 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Nordsjaelland, 27% draw, 27% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Nordsjaelland97%Draw3%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Runar Robinsonn Norheim
13'
Runar Robinsonn Norheim
14'
18'
Kristian Arnstad
42'
🔁Eric Kahlout: Jacob Andersen
🔁Ibrahim Adelout: Hjalte Rasmussen
59'
🔁Mark Brinkout: Malte Heyde
59'
59'
🔁Janni Serraout: Tobias Bech Kristensen
60'
🔁Rasmus Carstensenout: Luka Callø
62'
•Mads Christiansen
Jens Fønsskov Olsen
68'
⚽Alexander Lindassist: Juho Lähteenmäki
76'
77'
🔁Frederik Emmeryout: Mikael Anderson
77'
🔁Callum McCowattout: James Bogere
🔁Prince Amoako Juniorout: Villum Berthelsen
79'
Alexander Lind
79'
89'
Magnus Knudsen
⚽Hjalte Rasmussenassist: Justin Janssen
90+7'

Match stats — FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

53%Possession47%
19Shots12
3On target2
2Corners4

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3
  • 13A. HansenG
  • 2P. AnkersenD
  • 25V. NelssonD
  • 4Noah MarkmannD
  • 23R. NorheimM
  • 18Justin JanssenM
  • 6M. BrinkM
  • 5J. LähteenmäkiM
  • 10P. AmoakoF
  • 11A. LindF
  • 14Ibrahim AdelF
Substitutes
  • 29V. BerthelsenM
  • 9O. SolbakkenF
  • 47M. HeydeM
  • 42M. TukaD
  • 28M. WalkerD
  • 37Lamine SadioM
  • 35V. RutkjaerD
  • 22C. ErikssonG
  • 40H. Boe RasmussenM
Coach: J. Olsen
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
  • 25C. RöslerD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 8S. JørgensenM
  • 18C. McCowattM
  • 13J. SerraF
Substitutes
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 23M. AndersonM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 28J. BogereF
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 16J. JønssonM
  • 14T. MølgaardD
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
Coach: J. Poulsen

Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

FC Nordsjaelland

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
  • W3-1Brondby30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to FC St. Gallen27 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Sonderjyske23 August 2026

Aarhus

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
  • L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
  • L1-3Benfica27 August 2026
  • D2-2Odense23 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Nordsjaelland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Nordsjaelland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC Nordsjaelland had three goals or more.
  • Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4FC Nordsjaelland125521814+420
8Aarhus122641719-212

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

  • 23 April 2026FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 10 April 2026Aarhus 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
  • 24 October 2025Aarhus 1–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
  • 28 September 2025FC Nordsjaelland 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
  • 16 May 2025FC Nordsjaelland 2–0 AarhusSuperliga

The full FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus record →

Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus

FC Nordsjaelland

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lind41
  • H. Boe Rasmussen32

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra50
  • C. McCowatt32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Nordsjaelland beat Aarhus 2–0. The model had made a win for FC Nordsjaelland its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alexander Lind 76' for FC Nordsjaelland, Hjalte Rasmussen 90+7' for FC Nordsjaelland.

How the call on FC Nordsjaelland v Aarhus has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Aarhus's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Nordsjaelland win46%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Aarhus win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.