Regular Season - 8 · 13 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result

Right to Dream Park, Farum
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Nordsjaelland 2-0 Aarhus.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Nordsjaelland, 28% draw, 26% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 1.71, Aarhus 1.00.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

52%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-0 11%2-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Nordsjaelland at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Nordsjaelland97%Draw3%Aarhus0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Runar Robinsonn Norheim
13'
Runar Robinsonn Norheim
14'
18'
Kristian Arnstad
42'
🔁Eric Kahlout: Jacob Andersen
🔁Ibrahim Adelout: Hjalte Rasmussen
59'
🔁Mark Brinkout: Malte Heyde
59'
59'
🔁Janni Serraout: Tobias Bech Kristensen
60'
🔁Rasmus Carstensenout: Luka Callø
62'
•Mads Christiansen
Jens Fønsskov Olsen
68'
⚽Alexander Lindassist: Juho Lähteenmäki
76'
77'
🔁Frederik Emmeryout: Mikael Anderson
77'
🔁Callum McCowattout: James Bogere
🔁Prince Amoako Juniorout: Villum Berthelsen
79'
Alexander Lind
79'
89'
Magnus Knudsen
⚽Hjalte Rasmussenassist: Justin Janssen
90+7'

Match stats — FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

53%Possession47%
19Shots12
3On target2
2Corners4

Line-ups

FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3
  • 13A. HansenG
  • 2P. AnkersenD
  • 25V. NelssonD
  • 4Noah MarkmannD
  • 23R. NorheimM
  • 18Justin JanssenM
  • 6M. BrinkM
  • 5J. LähteenmäkiM
  • 10P. AmoakoF
  • 11A. LindF
  • 14Ibrahim AdelF
Substitutes
  • 29V. BerthelsenM
  • 9O. SolbakkenF
  • 47M. HeydeM
  • 42M. TukaD
  • 28M. WalkerD
  • 37Lamine SadioM
  • 35V. RutkjaerD
  • 22C. ErikssonG
  • 40H. Boe RasmussenM
Coach: J. Olsen
Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
  • 25C. RöslerD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 29R. CarstensenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 8S. JørgensenM
  • 18C. McCowattM
  • 13J. SerraF
Substitutes
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 23M. AndersonM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 28J. BogereF
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 16J. JønssonM
  • 14T. MølgaardD
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
Coach: J. Poulsen

Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

FC Nordsjaelland

  • D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Copenhagen3 September 2026
  • W3-1Brondby30 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Sonderjyske23 August 2026

Aarhus

  • D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
  • L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Randers FC30 August 2026
  • D2-2Odense23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FC Nordsjaelland8521136+717
11Aarhus8044915-64

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

  • 23 April 2026FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 10 April 2026Aarhus 1–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
  • 24 October 2025Aarhus 1–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
  • 28 September 2025FC Nordsjaelland 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
  • 16 May 2025FC Nordsjaelland 2–0 AarhusSuperliga
  • 30 March 2025Aarhus 2–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga

Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus

FC Nordsjaelland

  • H. Boe Rasmussen3 goals1 assists

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.71 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.00 for Aarhus; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Alexander Lind 76' (FC Nordsjaelland), Hjalte Rasmussen 90' (FC Nordsjaelland).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Nordsjaelland the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 1 for Aarhus. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.35 for Aarhus.