Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result
Final score: Istra 1961 3-0 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Istra 1961, 20% draw, 20% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Istra 1961 at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 4R. KumarD
- 13N. SepicD
- 8A. MauricM
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 80I. SaranicM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 24F. TarabaD
- 97A. KadusicD
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 34M. KablarM
- 27D. CelijaF
- 11S. GoricanF
- 7V. RozicF
- 30K. SenticG
- 18F. KruseljD
- 99F. KutlesaD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 5I. Cvetko
- 88D. BosakM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 11J. MitrovicD
- 7M. DabroF
- 8L. BanovecF
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 32I. CovicG
- 33K. IsasegiD
- 20M. PetrovicD
- 13A. BilobrkD
- 23A. JonssonM
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 22A. Adeshina
- 16L. GeciM
- 27A. GrgicF
Form going into Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
All competitions we cover
- L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Istra 1961 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 19 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 4 May 2026Istra 1961 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 27 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 29 November 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 12 September 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 28 April 2025Istra 1961 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and NK Slaven Belupo
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen115
- H. Jaganjac52
- D. Ahmeti34
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Istra 1961 beat NK Slaven Belupo 3–0. The model had made a win for Istra 1961 its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: N. Skafar Zuzic 16' for Istra 1961, H. Jaganjac 35' for Istra 1961, H. Jaganjac 56' for Istra 1961. Sent off: Filip Kutleša (NK Slaven Belupo) 3'. On expected goals it finished 2.85–0.30.