Istra 1961
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction
The model makes it 55% Istra 1961, 21% draw, 24% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Istra 1961 2.26, NK Slaven Belupo 1.44.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Istra 1961
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen2 goals
NK Slaven Belupo
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Istra 1961 carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.25 for NK Slaven Belupo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Istra 1961 L; NK Slaven Belupo L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.44 for NK Slaven Belupo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Istra 1961 rate 0.66 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.54 and 1.81.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Istra 1961 the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.44 for NK Slaven Belupo. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.81 for NK Slaven Belupo.