NK Osijek
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL prediction
The model makes it 67% NK Osijek, 20% draw, 13% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: NK Osijek 2.18, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.88.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Osijek
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
- W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NK Osijek | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
NK Osijek
- N. Omerović4 goals
- A. León2 goals
- A. Jakupovic1 goals
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- M. Marić1 goals1 assists
- D. Vuković1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Osijek carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.24 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Osijek W-W; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for NK Osijek and 0.88 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Osijek rate 0.63 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.54 and 1.83.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Osijek the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for NK Osijek against 0.88 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.83 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.