16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
Full time1 – 2

Final score: HNK Gorica 1-2 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% HNK Gorica, 21% draw, 45% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.94, 4.76 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

HNK Hajduk Split at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Gorica0%Draw5%HNK Hajduk Split95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽M. Segoassist: R. Pukstas
🔁K. Custovicout: J. Pranjic
46'
46'
🔁M. Acapandieout: L. Hodak
51'
Michele Šego
Ivan Cvijanović
52'
67'
🔁M. Soticekout: A. Guram
68'
🔁A. Pajazitiout: A. del Moral
71'
Anđelo Šutalo
🔁J. Friganout: S. Kucis
74'
🔁P. Mijicout: L. Vrzic
74'
⚽B. Bogojevic (pen)
78'
79'
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
79'
🔁A. Sutaloout: A. Sanyang
87'
⚽M. Livajaassist: A. del Moral
🔁F. Brautout: O. Bakic
88'
90'
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
🔁D. Pavicicout: B. Kardum
90+3'

Match stats — HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split

39%Possession61%
8Shots16
2On target5
3Corners4
1.27xG1.2

Goals against chances

HNK Gorica1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
HNK Hajduk Split2 from 1.20 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
  • 71D. MatijasG
  • 45S. PericD
  • 32J. FilipovicD
  • 34I. CvijanovicM
  • 2F. BrautM
  • 66J. FriganM
  • 36A. KaveljD
  • 25B. BogojevicM
  • 4K. CustovicM
  • 24D. PavicicM
  • 9P. MijicF
Substitutes
  • 30D. ZarkovG
  • 1R. JosipovicG
  • 28E. KozinaD
  • 7O. BakicM
  • 8J. PranjicM
  • 14S. KucisM
  • 67T. PrgometM
  • 99M. GashiF
  • 18B. KardumF
Coach: Mario Carevic
HNK Hajduk Split 4-3-3
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 8N. SigurM
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 11M. SegoF
  • 23M. SoticekM
Substitutes
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 38L. HodakD
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 26A. GuramM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 3R. GabricD
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Gorica

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
  • L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026
  • D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
  • W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
  • L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Pafos30 July 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Hajduk Split had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10HNK Gorica131481025-157
1HNK Hajduk Split139222711+1629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 12 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 31 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 24 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
  • 10 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 11 May 2025HNK Gorica 1–1 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Gorica

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bogojević40

HNK Hajduk Split

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šego51
  • A. Sanyang32
  • Carlos Martín31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split won 2–1 at HNK Gorica. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for HNK Hajduk Split at 45%. The goals: M. Sego 3' for HNK Hajduk Split, B. Bogojevic (penalty) 78' for HNK Gorica, M. Livaja 87' for HNK Hajduk Split. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.20.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.